A few weeks ago in one of my fantasy baseball leagues I lost a head-to-head matchup to Dan Clasgens. Over the years I have lost to Dan a number of times and it is always annoying. But this defeat was more difficult than usual. Yes, he put up a ton of points and seriously kicked my butt. But my team actually outscored 10 other teams in the league that week. In other words, if I was playing just about anyone else I would have won.

This week I am up against Dan again. It is Saturday morning as I put this piece together and I have a small lead over him and a bit of edge in the final two days. The big problem is we both hold the top two scores in the league for the week. One of us is going to outscore every other a team and still take a loss. So why am I explaining all this? Well, I think it's time to discuss the single largest factor in playing head-to-head in fantasy sports - luck.  

Many fantasy owners prepare more for their drafts than they did for their SAT's. They employ numerous draft strategies depending on the type of league, where they pick and how the draft is flowing. When the season begins they sort through the waiver wires each week and tweak lineups for maximum performance. But at the end of the week, there is one thing they can't control. No matter how many points a team puts up, no one can stop their opponent from outscoring them. That is nothing but luck.

Last year in one of my long lasting football keeper leagues, my wife put together a pretty good team. Without boring you with details, she consistently put up a ton of points and finished the season third in total scoring. But she lost four weeks to the team that had the most points and missed the playoffs. Had she played any other team in those weeks she would have been a top seed in the post-season and had a good chance at winning it all. Instead she eked out a victory in the Loser Bowl. That was just bad luck. 

I'm not bitter. I'm really not. After playing in numerous fantasy leagues over the past 10 years I have just learned to accept that there are somethings I cannot control. Sometimes everything just comes down to blind luck.

Unless, of course, I end up beating Dan. Then it was skill!!!