GSI Mock Draft: Round 1

by Dan Clasgens 7/11/2008 10:37:00 AM

It's that time of the year again for the annual GSI BLOG Mock Draft. The draft is set up for a 10-team league in yardage+TD, head-to-head scoring format. Over the next couple of weeks we will draft 14-man teams and offer our takes:

1. PREUTH - RB LaDainian Tomlinson - SD
2. CLASGENS - RB Adrian Peterson - MIN
3. HUMBERT - RB Brian Westbrook - PHI
4. BOLTON - RB Joseph Addai - IND
5. DINSMORE - RB Steven Jackson - STL
6. MURDICO - RB Frank Gore - SF
7. SIMS - QB Tom Brady - NE
8. SIMONS - RB Larry Johnson - KC
9. WETZEL - WR Randy Moss - NE
10. FISCHER - RB Clinton Portis - WAS

My Pick: With nearly every fantasy publication out there ranking LT as hands down the No. 1 pick, the real question this year is who's #2? While a strong arguement can be made for a handful of runners no running back perhaps in my 20+ years of playing fantasy football has the upside that A-Pete has coming into his sophomore year.  Sure there are risks - the injuries, sharing time with Chester Taylor, and a shaky passing game, but the pros far outweight the cons. For starters, no RB comes without injury risks. Look no at every single back taken in Round 1 here. Every one of them has had to deal with injuries. The Vikings have the league's best offensive line, a top-notch defense and the passing game is improving. Peterson ran for just 177 fewer yards last year despite missing two games, being severly limited in two others, and starting only nine contests. Peterson scored 13 TD's last year depsite receiving just 6 goalline carries, which was tied for 40th in the league.

Biggest Reach: Larry Johnson with the 8th pick was terrible. As if the foot injury wasn't enough to worry about, LJ still runs behind a below average offensive line and has Brodie Croyle under center. I have played with Mike Simon for years and know he covets Chiefs' running backs, but I really feel as if he could have waited until Round 2 (13th pick overall) to grab him if he loved Johnson that much. Personally, I am staying clear of LJ altogether and he should've here.

Final Take: It's no surprise that 8 of the first 10 picks were RB's and after their record-breaking season last year Tom Brady and Randy Moss demand first round attention. However, I don't expect either of them to sniff last season's epic numbers. As much as I love A-Pete, I think this year, like no other in recent memory, is one in which I would rather pick 4-6 rather than 1 or 2.

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Comments

7/11/2008 11:31:22 AM

Jim Humbert

I agree with Dan on the second pick being difficult. And it isn't much easier with the third. I don't think there is too much difference between Westbrook, Addai and Jackson. I went with Westbrook because he has put up great numbers regardless of who plays QB in Philly. You can't rely on Addai scoring as the Colts really spread the ball around. And the rest of the Rams offense seems to be fading which puts on damper on Jackson.

With that said, I would have been happy with any of the three backs.

Jim Humbert us

7/11/2008 12:31:33 PM

Chris Murdico

Well I was going to either go with Steven Jackson or Frank Gore with my first pick depending on what Jimmy did. Gore is going to be the focal point of the 49ers offense. So as long as he can stay healthy he could put up big numbers this year. He's going to be involved in the passing game a lot more this season too so that only helps his vaule. So I'm satisfied with getting Gore here in the middle of the first round...a place I hate to have to draft from by they way!

As far as reaching goes...I agree that LJ was a reach, especially in a 10 team league. If he's healthy he could put up decent number because he's the only piece of offense the Chiefs have. I think I'll let LJ be someone else's headache this season. And Randy Moss in the first round is kind of surprising to me when he probably would have been there in the second round for Wetzel...he could have taken a RB instead here...but to each his own I guess.

Chris Murdico us

7/11/2008 4:39:45 PM

Ben Bolton

In the early rounds, I have always been a proponent of consistency over upside, so my pick of Joseph Addai with pick #4 was easy. Despite a bit of an injury history missing a game last year, he's been very consistent over the past two and I expect him to really come into his own this season. The history of high-end fantasy players from Indinapolis is another plus. I had Stephen Jackson in a league last year and wasn't going to tempt fate after his injury riddled 2007 season. Even though Gore is a solid fantasy back, it never really crossed my mind to draft him over Addai. I mean, he plays for the 49ers...that should tell you enough right there. He's the only bright spot on San Fran's offense and will get worn down quickly as the season progresses. A big injury for him this season wouldn't surprise me in the least.

Ben Bolton us

7/11/2008 4:53:32 PM

Jimmy Dinsmore

I drafted for value over instinct or who I like, etc. That's normally how I draft. Jackson, was on average, the third overall rated player available. So getting him at #5 was a no brainer. However, I anguished over it anyway after first round RBs screwed me and many owners last year, Jackson included. The Rams are easily one of the most frustrating teams in the NFL. They need to utilize Jackson more and if he's healthy, this was a great pick. The flip side is, who would I have taken if not Jackson? Gore? Probably not. Brady? Moss? I wanted a RB and really there was one choice only for me. I've always heard 5 was a great draft spot, but each pick leaves me anguishing. I thought picks 1-4 before me, were pretty much on par. Peterson second, maybe not, but that kid was awesome last year. Westbrook probably would've been my choice.

Jimmy Dinsmore

7/11/2008 6:14:30 PM

Bret Sims

LJ was more than just a reach in the first round it was a flat out bad pick but I'm glad someone else removed him from the board so I didn't have to worry about it.

I don't expect Tom Brady to be the scoring machine that he was last year but if he is 80% of what he was then I'm liking my pick.

As for RB's the one only that is a sure thing is LT. Look at all the backs last year that were taken in the top 5 to 6 picks, Jackson, Parker, LJ who didn't do squat. Then Graham, Grant, Taylor and others actually out rushed them. Nothing is a sure thing these days.

Bret Sims us

7/11/2008 6:26:51 PM

Chris Murdico

LT wasn't even a sure thing as the season went on last year. I drafted him first overall in one league last year and really ended up being disappointed more times than not. Granted his numbers still ended up being great, but not quite the typical LT type numbers you'd expect. Even with that said, he's still undoubtedly the number one player in fantasy football.

Chris Murdico us

7/14/2008 1:31:36 PM

Chris Wetzel

I really don't like taking anything but a RB in round 1, it was hard to pass on Randy Moss. Even though I've been burned by him in the past.

What is going to change in the New England offense? It will more than likely not be exactly as productive as last season, but who expected last season to happen? Moss is still a virtual lock to put up big numbers again, and there wasn't anything distinguishing the next three backs taken (Portis, Lynch and Barber) to make me want two of those over having Moss and one of them.

Moss, in the drafts I'd seen, was going a couple of picks before nine, so I felt he was as good as gone if I didn't take him here. I wasn't expecting to have to make that choice, but there it was, so I took it. Not sure if I'd do the same thing twice, but I'm not really disappointed in my choice after the fact.

Chris Wetzel us

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