Inside The Numbers: Catching the Cubs

by Greg Shoemaker 6/2/2008 7:43:00 AM

The Cincinnati Reds (28-29) ended their week 5-1 and back to one game under .500 on the heels of the arrival of Jay Bruce.  Unfortunately, they lost a a game in the NL Central standings.

The Reds are looking up at the Chicago Cubs (36-21), who have won seven straight and have the best record in the majors.  It has been 100 years since the Cubs had baseball's best record after June 1st.  That was also the last time the franchise won the World Series. 

Oh what a cruel joke the "curse of the Billy Goat" is constructing on Clark and Addison.  Could you imagine if they fall out of contention - WOW!

Highly unlikely though.  Here is what makes the Cubs so good:
1.  They can hit.  Theriot, Ramirez and Fukodome all hitting over .300 and have OBP's over .400.  Six regulars hitting better than .295.  Leading the league in runs scored, BA and OBP.
2. The bullpen has been outstanding.  Wood, Marol, Wuertz have a combined ERA of 2.42 with just 31 Walk's and 118 K's in 122.1 IP's.
3. They have an ace.  At 7-1 with a 2.33 ERA, Carlos Zambrano is the bulldog all playoff teams need.
4. Nice schedule 23 of 36 wins are against teams that are currently under .500.  Cubs are 9-3 vs. PIT and 13-2 vs. the NL West.

What the Reds need to happen if they want to catch the Cubs:
1. Play .500 ball on the road.  That means they would have to go 32-21 the rest of the way. 
2. Win at home, if they continue to win at the pace they are currently are on they will end up with 34 more home wins (34-18). 
3. 94 wins that's what the Reds would have if they accomplish 1 & 2 above.  It doesn't sound far-fetched.
2. Cubs rotation not that strong with Marquis, Lily Gallagher and Dempster who hasn't thrown more than 91 innings since 2001.  At some point does it catches up with them.
3. Bench depth is a strength of the Reds and a liabilty to the Cubs if any starter goes down. 

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Comments

6/2/2008 9:58:04 PM

Dan Clasgens

Where's Steve Bartman when we need him?

Dan Clasgens us

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