By the Numbers

by Jim Humbert 3/18/2008 6:56:00 PM

There are many college basketball fans out there that can back up their picks of all 64 tournament games based on the strengths and weaknesses of each team. There are just as many that can justify filling out a bracket by choosing which team has the dominant mascot. Regardless of what strategy is used by the thousands of people filling out brackets this week, everyone will, to some degree, base their decisions on the seedings. Here is a look at how the seeds have fared in the history of the NCAA tournament. Please note that all statistics are based on 1985 (the year the tournament was expanded to 64 teams) to the present unless otherwise noted.

#1 versus #16
Nearly everyone knows that a #16 seed has never won a game in the tounament. When and if that ever does occur it will likely be a result of significant injuries and/or major foul trouble by the top team. And that is something not even the best prognosticators can predict. The last #1 seed to not make it out of the second round was Kentucky in 2004. Since then, all but Duke in 2005 made it to the Elite Eight. Still, there has never been a Final Four with all #1 seeds. The last time three top seeds made it was in 1999. And it was just two years ago when none of the #1 seeds made the Final Four - the only time that has happened in 23 years.

#2 versus #15
The last time a #15 beat a #2 was in 2001 when Hampton triumphed over Iowa State. That was just the fourth time such an upset occurred. Neither of those four teams made it past their next opponent. Only four #2 seeds have won the national championship, the last being Connecticut in 2004. Last year marked just the fourth time that two #2 seeds made the Final Four whereas there have been seven times that the last weekend did not include a second seed. Two years ago, two #2 seeds, Ohio State and Tennessee, did not make it past the second round.

#3 versus #14
Every year there is at least one #3 seed that does not make it past the second round. In 2005, three of them were out after the first weekend and in 1997 all four #3 seeds failed to make it to the Sweet Sixteen. In total, 48 of a possible 92 #3 seeds failed to get out of the first two rounds. (Quick math - more than half lost early.) However, two recent champions have come from the #3 seed - Florida in 2006 and Syracuse in 2003. Before then, the only #3 to win it all was Michigan in 1989.

#4 versus #13
While early round success has been nearly as good for the #4 seeds as the #3's in the history of the tournament, recent years have been much worse. In the last five years only six of a possible 20 #4 seeds made it to the Sweet Sixteen. However, two of those made it to the Final Four - LSU in 2006 and Louisville in 2005. Only two #13 seeds went on to win a second game and advance to the second weekend - Bradley in 2006 and Richmond in 1988. Both lost in the Sweet Sixteen.

#5 versus #12 and #6 versus #11
Both the #5 and #6 seeds have the same winning percentage in the first round of the tournament - 68%. That means at least two and probably three of the #5's and #6's won't be playing beyond this Friday. The last #5 seed to make the Final Four was Michigan State in 2005. The last #6 was Michigan in 1992. On the other end, the #11's have had much better success than the #12. Two years ago George Mason made an amazing run to the Final Four. LSU did the same back in 1986. The furtherst a #12 has gone in the tournament was Missouri who made it to the Elite Eight in 2002.

#7 versus #10
Last year presented a bit of an anomaly in the stats between the #7 and #10 seeds. Traditionally, the #7 only wins 62% of the matchups. But in 2007 all four of the #7 seeds prevailed. That means that, statistically, don't be surprised if three or four of them go down in the first round this year. The last time there were four upsets of #10's over #7's was 1999. No team of either seed has made the Final Four. The last #7 to make the Elite Eight was West Virginia in 2005. In 2002, Kent State was the last #10 to make it that far.

#8 versus #9
Historically, the #8 seed has only beaten the #9 seed 42 times in 92 attempts. Meaning that statistically, the #9 seed is a slight favorite. However, here is where things get strange. In the last 10 tournaments, the #8 seed has dominated in even numbered years, 17-3. In odd years the numbers reverse and the #9 has dominated 17-3. And all of the results have been either a 3-1 or 4-0 advantage. No #9 has ever made the Final Four. In 2000, two #8's made it that far - North Carolina and Wisconsin. But there is only one truly great #8, the one that started it all - Villanova. In 1985 Coach Valvano and his Wildcats set the standard for the field of 64 by winning the national championship. 

Currently rated 5.0 by 1 people

  • Currently 5/5 Stars.
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5

Tags: , , , ,

College Hoops

Related posts

Add comment


(Will show your Gravatar icon)  

  Country flag

[b][/b] - [i][/i] - [u][/u]- [quote][/quote]



Live preview

7/27/2008 5:41:23 AM

Powered by BlogEngine.NET 1.3.0.0
Theme by Mads Kristensen

About the author

Name of author Author name
Something about me and what I do.

E-mail me Send mail

Calendar

<<  July 2008  >>
MoTuWeThFrSaSu
30123456
78910111213
14151617181920
21222324252627
28293031123
45678910

View posts in large calendar

Recent posts

Recent comments

Tags

Disclaimer

The opinions expressed herein are my own personal opinions and do not represent my employer's view in anyway.

© Copyright 2008

Sign in