Looking to take an upset underdog in round one of the Big Dance?  Here are three lower seeded teams and five reasons they’ll walk away winners in their first game.  

UPSET 1: #11 St. Joseph’s over #6 Oklahoma
These seeds could have been flipped because the teams are so similar. Here is why the St. Joseph's Hawks will come out victorious:

• Oklahoma struggles to score (68.4 ppg), their leading scorer is a freshman.
• The Sooners have had four anemic offensive outputs of 45, 45, 54 and 54 in their last seven contests.
• St. Joe’s has allowed more than 66 points just once in their last eight games (79 @ Dayton).  Four of those games were against NCAA tournament teams Xavier & Temple.
• The Hawks will not have problems scoring.  Pat Calathes, Rob Ferguson and Ahmad Nivins have combined for 3,468 points over the last three seasons.
• Coaching Preparation – Phil Martelli will be able to calm his team down if they struggle early or face a Sooner second half flurry.  It’s the X factor.

UPSET 2: #10 Davidson over #7 Gonzaga
This could be the year the Davidson Wildcats breakout and win that elusive first round game.  Here is why they will against the Zags:

• Senior leadership, the Wildcats four-year players (Thomas Sander, Boris Meno and Jason Richard) are 98-31 in their careers with three straight NCAA appearances an NIT Elite Eight finish as well.
• Great guard play led by sophomore All-American Stephen Curry (1,503 career points on pace for 3,000) and outstanding point guard Jason Richard who averaged 13.0 points and 8.7 assists in the three loses vs. UCLA, Duke and North Carolina earlier in the year.
• Over confident Bulldog pre-game tone.  The Zags approach should reflect an urgency rather than overly confident arrogant swagger they seem to be portraying going into this match up.  The Zags may already be looking ahead to a potential second round tilt with Georgetown.
• Weak WCC schedule, it is hard to judge how good Gonzaga is when five of eight conference opponents were sub .500 on the year.  They combined for just 51 wins and 106 total loses.
• No senior leadership on offense for Gonzaga. Four-year players are non-existent as scoring threats, no “go-to” guys.  Top four point producers are underclassmen.

UPSET 3: #5 Drake vs. #12 Western Kentucky
A 28-win season gets the Drake Bulldogs a #5 seed and a bad opening round match up with WKU.  The Hilltoppers (27-6) have won 18 of their last 19 games: 

• Equal footing, neither team has Tournament experience BUT WKU has tourney history, which could play a big advantage in this game.
• Pressure defense on the Drake guards.  The Hilltoppers defense forces a turnover in one of every four opponent possessions.
• America meet NBA prospect Courtney Lee.  The WKU difference maker is a  6’5” senior “slasher” and has tallied 2,176 career points.  This is a coming out party for him.
• Offsetting guard play.  The Hillltoppers top five scorers are guards.  Drake’s top two scoring threats are guards who are being fed by MVC POY Adam Emmenecker.
• Mediocre MVC, only three teams finished more than four games above .500 on the year.  Hard to get a grip on how special Drake’s season was.