Player Profile: Ryan Braun

by Ben Bolton 2/7/2008 1:00:00 PM

A lot is being speculated regarding the upcoming '08 performance of 2007 Rookie of the Year Ryan Braun.  It is pretty much concensus, however, that he will be among the top four third basemen in this year's fantasy draft.  How is a sophomore guy a second round pick, if not better?  Let me count the ways.

First off, let me tell you that this is a standard 5x5 league format.  In the second round, I wanted to sure up another infield position after drafting Chase Utley in the first.  With outfielders being available later and the Trinity of shortstops (Ramirez, Reyes, and Rollins) off the board I chose Ryan Braun.  In Braun's rookie season last year, he posted numbers similar to someone in their prime (.324, 34 HR, 97 RBI, 91 R, 15 SB).  Another plus he gives to a fantasy team is the fact that he'll be playing primarily in left field this year.  Since he stayed at 3B for all of '07, that means he'll be eligible at both positions.  Flexibility is a big bonus when dealing with high talent guys.  His value in keeper leagues is even more dramatic as he is only 24 years old.

Let's compare him to two other third basemen generally ranked above him.  Braun had more home runs than David Wright (30), a better average than Miguel Cabrera (.320), and only 26 less RBI than Cabrera (119) and ten less RBI than Wright (107).  All of this in at least 137 LESS AT-BATS than Wright and Cabrera.  That is astounding!  This guy has so much upside I would have been a fool not to take a shot at him.  Now, I'm not saying this guy is the next A-Rod or anything.  If all remains well with the Brew Crew, however, you could see Braun put up A-Rod-esque numbers this season. 

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2/7/2008 1:18:40 PM

Jimmy Dinsmore

Ben, everything you say is true and you make a great point, but I think there's more to Sophomore Slumps than superstition. Pitchers will have figured out how to pitch to Braun. He'll also go into a slump as all hitters do. Will that kill his confidence. I've seen so many sophomores just suck that I'd be so afraid to invest a second round pick on him, especially on someone who's moving from a weak position (fantasy wise) like 3B to a plentiful one like OF. That to me hurts his value even further.

Jimmy Dinsmore us

2/7/2008 2:24:49 PM

Jeremy Fischer

The move to OF, where there are more plentiful options, will only be a downer for next year. He'll have plenty of flexibility for this season. So if you're in a keeper league, you need to consider that. But for one-and-done leagues? Not a problem at all.

I also understad about the "sophomore slump" deal, but I don't think it'll be a problem. Braun is a hitting machine that has destroyed pitching year-in, and year-out at every level.

I truly don't believe you'll see a prolonged slump out of him. A mini-one maybe, but not a prolonged one.

Jeremy Fischer us

2/7/2008 5:33:22 PM

Adam Bartel

Most guys have a sophomore slump, but it's pretty encouraging that his numbers actually got better as the season went on. Had he not gone the pick before me, I would have snagged him.

Adam Bartel us

2/7/2008 9:16:37 PM

Dan Clasgens

He is going to hit for a ton of power again and though its not a problem in 5x5 formats, in leagues where errors count his value definitely takes a dip. The fact that he hit 34 HRs and 97 RBIs despite not making his debut until May 25 last season is unreal. Taking him in Round 2 in this year was good value!

Dan Clasgens us

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