Foggy Mountain Breakdown

by Adam Bartel 2/20/2008 10:45:00 PM

The Rocky Mountain News is reporting that former Colorado starting pitcher Josh Fogg is about to sign a one-year deal with the Reds.  The deal is reported to have a base salary of $1 million.

Fogg went 10-9 with a 4.94 ERA in 2007.  You would think that Fogg would be penciled into the rotation, along with Harang/Arroyo/Belisle, which would leave the fifth spot open for a competition between Homer Bailey, Jeremy Affeldt, Edinson Volquez, and perhaps Johnny Cueto.  It might also give them the opportunity to move Affeldt back into the bullpen where he clearly belongs.

On paper, this seems like a huge steal for the Reds.  Fogg was expected to receive a multi-year deal on the open market, but didn't find any suitors (not unlike Kyle Lohse).  As the RMN report states, he played chicken with the Rockies when they offered him a one year, $5 million deal, telling them that he wanted more than one year.  Now he's left taking a one-year contract.

Fogg should be a decent stop gap hurler.  With his soft-tosser profile (94 K's in 165.2 IP in 2007), there's going to be plenty of opportunities for hitters to put the bat on the ball.  Over the past couple years, Fogg has been allowing more flyballs and keeping the ball on the ground less, so that's a concern in GABP.  But this will keep things together until both Bailey and Cueto are ready for the bigs permanently, and for very little money.

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2/21/2008 7:06:41 AM

Jimmy Dinsmore

good move for the Reds (what's the harm?). Bad move for Fogg, turning down $5 million a year. You aren't that good pal.

Jimmy Dinsmore

2/21/2008 10:30:33 PM

Dan Clasgens

Fogg for $1 million is a good move and a big upgrade. Still, I don't expect that the team is done looking for pitching. Don't hold your breath on a trade happening anytime soon, but the ownership has made it clear they are willing to do what it can (within reasonable means) to build a winner! I look for them to stay active on the trade market as long as they stay in the race! A deal in March is certainly not out of the question either.

Fogg has a high fly-ball ratio, which is a bit scary for GABP but I like the fact that he doesn't walk very many batters.

Dan Clasgens us

2/21/2008 11:28:29 PM

Jim Humbert

Any move that a team makes to improve pitching has to be considered a good one. Fogg is not a stud but the Reds don't need one and for $1 million he is a great addition. Here is a look at his numbers.

Lifetime ERA - 4.90
ERA at GABP - 4.17 in 8 starts
ERA at Coors - 6.06 in 30 starts

Last year at home - 5.97
Last year away - 4.15

So as long as he maintains those numbers the Reds just picked up a starter that will finish the season with around 170 innings and an ERA just over 4 - that's a good deal.

And I'm willing to bet a buck he finishes the year with more wins than Arroyo.


Jim Humbert us

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