It appears that Johan Santana is heading to the Mets, assuming that a contract extension can be reached and Santana passes his physical.  But do any of us believe that the Mets wouldn't have traded for Santana if they weren't prepared to pay the extension price?  Right.  Didnt' think so.

But how does the best pitcher in baseball switching leagues affect his fantasy draft value?  Greatly.

According to Mock Draft Central's latest ADP (Average Draft Position) rankings, Santana is going around the 16th pick.  With the switch to the NL, he should skyrocket up your board.  In my Round 1 fantasy draft column, I penciled him in the 4-hole overall.  I read the latest reports and played a hunch that the Mets would evenutally land Santana.  I was right.  I stand by him in the 4th overall slot.  If you're the owner who was thinking mid-to-late Round 2 was about right for him, you better reconsider.  He will, and should be a legitimate Top 5 pick come draft day.

In my previous column, I envoked the possible league switch and the "Antonio Gates Theory" as my reasoning behind having him so high.  Never has that proved truer.  Gates, until this past season, was by far-and-away the best tight end in football.  In fact, coming into the 2007 season, he ranked in the Top 10 in receivers overall, wide-outs included.  The same goes for Santana.

Santana finished last season 3rd in the majors in strikeouts, 13th in ERA (3.33--highest of his career), 18th in wins (15--fewest of his career since becoming a full-time starter), and 2nd in WHIP (1.07).  The ERA and Wins can be directly attributed to the fact that the Twins had a mediocre fielding percentage and had a pretty putrid offense.  The ranked 9th out of the 14 AL teams in average (.264) and 7th in the AL in fielding percentage (.984).  At least one of these issue will be taken care of with the trade.  The Mets ranked 2nd in the NL in batting average (.275), and they still have the same core of hitter returning next season.  Unfortunately, Santana will still have to deal with the same mediocre defense around him, as the Mets fielding percentage (.983) is almost statistically the same as the Twins.

But what should really vault Santana into a legitimate Top 5 pick in your drafts this year are his stats when pitching against the NL.  One of the nice things about interleague play is that we can get a sampling (albeit a small one) of what a player's stats will do when confronted with a league switch.  Thank you Bud Selig (might be the only time I write that sentence again).  In the years since Santana became a full-time starter (2004-2007), here is what he has posted in interleague games:

16 starts / 10-3 / 2.16 ERA / .184 BA against / .83 WHIP / 9.18 K/9 rate

Put those numbers in conjunction with the fact that this might be the best offensive team he's ever played for, the fact that the NL switch allows him to face much weaker hitters in the 8 and 9-holes (sometimes in the 7-hole as well), and the fact that most NL hitters will be seeing his devastating slider for the first time in their lives, and you should have the definition of fantasy domination.

I fully expect Santana to return to his sub-3 ERA form.  His WHIP will probably hoover around 1, but I wouldn't be surprised to see below that.  And he should easily hit the 250 K mark.  In comparison, last year's NL Cy Young winner, Jake Peavy, led the majors in K's with 240, ERA (2.54) and WHIP (1.06).  Santana already compares with him in the strikeout and WHIP categories, and he was pitching in the tougher AL last season.  Santana should easily lead the league in every statistical pitching category next season.

Sounds like a Top 5 pick to me.