A quick take before the list.  On Wednesday, Dusty Baker was asked about Aaron Harang's arm injury and if he thought it resulted from the long relief outing in San Diego that he threw on short rest and the resulting starting assignment three days later.  Baker's response, as printed in the Cincinnati Enquirer, was, "No, it goes back before that."  What!!!!  Does that alarm anyone else?  That means he knew about Harang's arm injury and still threw him in long relief on short rest and then subsequently started him on short rest.  The man is a menace- eat his contract. 

On to better news...

Four times a year, I publish an updated rankings of the Reds Prospects.  Usually, I only list the top ten, but I had requests to expand it.  So today, we expand to twenty plus two extra (for reasons explained below).  The system has definitely fallen to the middle of the pack with the graduation of Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Johnny Cueto to the Majors.  The Reds now have a lot of mid- level talent in the minors-  the type of guys who could have three or four productive years or may just be role players.  This could change- some players like Kyle Lotzkar and Neftali Soto have the potential to be better than productive.  There is a big drop in talent after #6 on the list and an even bigger drop after #10.  So here we go:

1.  Yonder Alonso *, 1B, unsigned:  The 2008 number one draft pick is, by far, their number one prospect when he signs.  He has a higher ceiling and a better potential for longetivity than anyone else.  Even though I would have preferred Georgia shortstop Gordon Beckham, this is Reds Senior Director of Scouting Chris Buckley's best pick in his three year stint with the club.

2.  Daryl Thompson, SP, AAA:  Not quite ready for prime time, but may be by 2009.  He is conquering Triple- A.

3.  Homer Bailey*, SP, AAA:  He is losing prospect status because he will no longer be a rookie after this season and because he is being called up again by the Reds to fill in for Harang.  In the meantime, his fastball has no movement, he cannot get his breaking stuff over the plate and his character is being questioned.  He now projects as a #3 starter at best.

4.  Todd Frazier, IF/ OF, High- A:  The 2007 second round draft pick has already been moved off of shortstop and is being auditioned on all corners of the diamond.  His bat (.289/ .357/ .442 in 197 at bats at Sarasota) will have to carry him to Cincinnati and it should.

5.  Chris Valaika, SS, AA:  Valaika will probably not make the Majors as a shortshop, but could as a second baseman or third baseman.  His bat (.293/ .353/ .457 in 232 at at bats at Chattanooga) will be above average at second, but only average for a third sacker.

6.  Josh Roenicke, RP, AAA:  Rarely do you see relief pitchers ranked highly on lists like this.  Roenicke deserves it- he throws his fastball in the mid to upper 90s and throws a cutter about 10 mph slower.  He is already 25 years old so he should be in Cincinnati by the end of the year.

7.  Neftali Soto, IF, Low-A:  Here is another player who is going to be moved off of shortstop.  In the meantime, the Reds will wait patiently for the 19- year old to mature into a power hitter.  Keep in mind that he broke Juan Gonzalez' youth home run record in Puerto Rico.

8.  Kyle Lotzkar, SP, Low-A:  The Canadian has stuck out 38 batters in just 26 innings at Dayton to go along with a 3.86 ERA and an opponents' average of .213 against him.  This is pretty impressive considering he was facing high school hitters just 14 months ago.  Many considered him a steal when the Reds got him with the 53rd pick overall in last year's draft.

9.  Drew Stubbs, OF, AA:  Stubbs will make the Majors due to his glove, arm and legs, all of which are plus tools for the 23- year old.  He probably will not be much of a hitter due to his lack of contact at the plate.  The drafting of Stubbs over Tim Lincecum in 2006 is the worst mistake that former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky made.

10.  Zach Stewart, RP, Low-A:  The Reds 2008 third round pick will not be in Dayton much longer:  0.73 ERA in 12.33 innings with nine strikeouts and an opponents average of .119.

11.  Juan Francisco, 3B, High-A:  There are many others who are much higher on Francisco and his power potential that I am.  He has cut his strikeout rate, but his low .287 on base percentage tells me that he is still making far too many poor decisions at the plate.  This has been the knock on him since he signed so there has been no progress there.

12.  Devin Mesoraco, C, Low-A:  Buckley's first rounders in 2006 (Stubbs) and 2007 (Mesoraco) are losing their luster.  Mesoraco is not putting up great numbers (.251/ .305/ .368 in 171 at bats at Dayton) and he is not impressing scouts:  http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7773

13.  Brandon Waring, 3B, Low-A:  His 97 strikeouts in 273 at bats puts Adam Dunn to shame.  The seventh- round pick from last year is driving the ball into the gaps and over the walls- he has 15 home runs and a .495 slugging percentage.

14.  Matt Maloney, SP, AAA:  His ceiling is not as high as some pitchers listed below, but he has proven more and done it at a higher level.  He will make it to Bigs by the end of this year.

15.  Sean Henry, LF, AA:  Anyone that plays left field needs to hit.  Henry, who came over from the Mets in exchange for Jeff Conine, has done just that:  .324/ .400/ .506 in  247 at bats in Double- A.  He has been compared to ex- Red Cody Ross- not bad considering the season Ross is having with the Marlins.

16.  Ramon Geronimo, RP, High- A:  He is putting up some eye- popping numbers in Sarasota:  in 38.33 innings, he has a 0.70 ERA, 44 Ks, 10 BBs, and an opponents average of .154.  He is definitely someone to watch.  The only downside is his age- he is about to turn 25.  (He needs to be promoted... pronto.)

17.  Sam LeCure, SP, AA:  He has a lot of upside.  He could be a #3 starter as opposed to Maloney, Jukich and Watson who are all #4s at best. 

18.  Ben Jukich, SP, AA:  He is having a solid season thanks to increased control and keeping the ball down.  He has given up only five home runs in 111.66 innings.

19.  Sean Watson, SP, AA:  He is struggling since his promotion to Chattanooga:  in 14.33 innings, he has a WHIP of 1.95, an ERA of 9.42 and 14 walks.  He does have 18 strikeouts though.

20.  Paul Janish, SS, AAA:  Janish showed his excellent glovework in his brief stint with the Reds last month.  He can field at the major league level.  His bat may hold him back.

*= Since Alonso is unsigned and Bailey is about to be promoted to Cincinnati, here are two more...

21.  Adam Rosales, IF, AAA:  His make- up is off the charts.  He could be a professional coach one day.

22.  Philippe-Alexandre Valiquette, RP, High- A:  This lefthander is striking out over a batter an inning so far this season between Low- A and High- A.

OVERRATED

1.  Travis Wood, SP, AA:  not a prospect at all... cannot miss enough bats or get enough outs and he has already peaked.

2.  Pedro Viola, RP, AA:  I, along with many others, have missed on him.  He has followed up a breakthrough 2007 with a miserable 2008.

3.  Chris Dickerson, OF, AAA:  athletic, but never puts up good numbers.

In recent years, Major League Baseball has worked to catch up with professional basketball and football by making its amateur draft a big deal.  It has received help from ESPN, which has decided to televise the early part of the event and it has received help from its franchises who are putting an emphasis on their farm systems and not free agents.  Lastly, and maybe most importantly, interest has been generated by the internet as college and prep stars' statistics and scouting reports have become much more accessible.

The 2008 MLB Amateur Draft, which is this Thursday, June 5th at 2:00, boasts a weak overall pool of talent.  Its strengths are at first base, catcher, and in relief pitching.  Its weaknesses are in pitching- particularly at the high school level, outfield and shortstop.  There are five players that would be highly ranked in any year and then there is a falloff to the second tier of roughly eight players.  At that point, the talent drops off significantly and each player comes with questions.  With that in mind, here are the top 15 heading into the draft based on scouting reports, statistics and track record.  One note: this list is strictly based on talent- signability (i.e. Scott Boras clients and players leaning towards college) is not figured in.

At the end, we try to feed the Reds fans by prognosticating, using Reds logic, who the Cincinnati Reds will take with their seventh overall pick.

The Top 15 Draft Prospects:

1.  Tim Beckham, HS, SS:  He is not a clear cut number one pick, but he has the highest ceiling in the draft and is easily the most talented high school player.  The Rays have the first pick and they have a glaring need at shortstop and catcher so they will either take Beckham or Florida State catcher Buster Posey

2.  Pedro Alvarez, Vanderbilt, 3B:  He missed the first 23 games of the season, put up a respectable but not remarkable batting average of .312 and is still in the top five.  This is because he has some serious power and has already proven himself on Team USA the past two summers.

3.  Aaron Crow, Missouri, RHP:  Crow's stock skyrocketed earlier this season when he put together 43 straight scoreless innings.  He came back to earth in April and then came concerns about his violent motion.  These minuses may drop him to number seven in the draft, but no lower than that.

4.  Brian Matusz, San Diego, LHP:  Many scouts, experts, and MLB personnel have Matusz ahead of Crow, but its just a matter of taste.  Matusz is lefthanded, may be more polished, and may have more secondary pitches, but Crow keeps the ball down.

5.  Buster Posey, Florida State, C:  There are many teams early in the draft in dire need of catching.  Posey, who has only been catching two years, may be the safest pick in the draft.  He is going to hit (he hit .471 this season) and despite his inexperience behind the plate, he is already an above average fielder.

6.  Justin Smoak, Southern California, 1B:  Though the struggled with Team USA last year, Smoak has done nothing but hit and hit for power in college.  He can hit to all fields- from both sides of the plate- and is above average defensively.  The biggest question on him is his position- should a team really draft a first baseman this high considering it is the easiest position to learn (and possibly fill)?

7.  Eric Hosmer, HS, 1B:  Scott Boras has his hands on Hosmer and claims it will take a lot of cash for Hosmer not to fulfill his commitment to attend Arizona State.  Hosmer is the best high school hitter in the country and can throw a fastball in the 90s- he's a great athlete and a huge risk.  He could drop like a rock due to his Boras affiliation.

8.  Yonder Alonso, Miami, 1B:  Amazingly, a third straight first baseman lands in the Top 15.  That may not happen again for twenty years.  That is a good indication of just how weak this draft is that no high school pitcher is a better pick than the first three first basemen.

9.  Gordon Beckham, Georgia, SS:  Gordon (no relation to fellow Georgian Tim) went undrafted out of high school and proceeded to use that chip on his shoulder in a positive manner.  He won the Cape Cod League home run title last summer and continued to hit for power this spring drawing comparisons to Chase Utley.  He uses more of the field than Utley, but he will probably end up at Utley's position which drops him a little in the draft.

10.  Kyle Skipworth, HS, C:  Overall, the draft may be weak, but the state of California tried its best to change that.  There may be five to seven Californians chosen in the first round including Skipworth, who is the best high school catcher.  He is widely considered as significantly better than Devin Mesoraco who was chosen 15th overall by the Reds last year.

11.  Shooter Hunt, Tulane, RHP:  There is a slight dropoff from Matusz and Crow to Hunt, but not much.  Because he is a pitcher and some players ahead of him are first basemen, this should be about the latest that Hunt is drafted.

12.  Aaron Hicks, HS, OF/ RHP: Whoever drafts Hicks will have an interesting decision to make- centerfielder or pitcher?  He is a five tool centerfielder who reminds many of Eric Davis, but he also throws a fastball in the mid 90s and has a hard curveball, a cutter and a change to boot.  It would not be a reach to see Hicks drafted in the top ten.

13.  Josh Fields, Georgia, RHP:  There is a dropoff after Hicks.  Fields is a right handed Billy Wagner in almost every aspect.  He can throw in the upper 90s, he can miss badly in spurts, and he is small in stature.

14.  Brett Lawrie, HS (Canada), 3B/C:  Canadians can be hard to scout due to the weather, weak competition and lack of exposure.  Lawrie fell through these cracks until he went on tour last summer with Canada' junior national team.  He has skyrocketed up the rankings as more and more people see him.

15.  Tim Melville, HS, RHP:  Melville barely edges fellow high school hurler, Ethan Martin, for the last spot in our rankings.  He is no Clayton Kershaw nor Homer Bailey and really is not worthy of a first round pick in a normal year.  As it is, he and his family have made it quite public that he wants to be paid like a top 15 pick or he is honoring his commitment to North Carolina.

Lastly, who do the Cincinnati Reds, who have Bengaled the last two first round picks, figure to draft when the seventh overall pick is up on Thursday?  Well, they could ignore history and draft another fast riser with no track record (2007 first rounder Devin Mesoraco) or someone that cannot make contact despite his advanced age (2006 first rounder Drew Stubbs).  Or they could go with a high ceiling high schooler that has plenty of experience competing at top levels (Skipworth).  Or they could make a safe pick on a position of need (Gordon Beckham).  Or they could get lucky and have someone fall into their laps and be forced to succeed- a scenario that is possible, but not probable...

The top five in the rankings should all be gone by the time the Reds pick at number seven.  If not, they should jump on whoever remains and then keep going to church.  If this does not happen, here are the best picks for the Reds with an emphasis on three positions of need:  pitching, shortstop and catching.

1.  Eric Hosmer- only if they are going to pay him Boras- type money which is doubtful, so that leads us to...

2.  Kyle Skipworth- this corrects the pick from last year (Mesoraco), but drafting two straight catchers is a stretch, so that leads us to...

3.  Gordon Beckham- safe pick... let's hope he stays at shortstop.

4.  Aaron Hicks- would be worth the price of admission at Dayton next year.

5.  Shooter Hunt- projects no higher than a #3.

Put it all together, and Gordon Beckham is the probable pick for the Reds.

As bad as the Bengals' reputation has become for acquiring and tolerating bad character players, there's one level they've never gone to: teammate-on-teammate violence.  Lucky for them, they've got (now former) Pittsburgh Pirates prospect Olivo Astacio to look down upon.

The Pirates released the prospect after he attacked another teammate in extended spring training with a bat.  According to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, "Astacio and the other player were having an argument, the sources said, and Astacio struck the player's leg with a swing of his bat. He swung again and missed before the incident was broken up."  The other player was not identified.

This isn't Astacio's first bout with behavioral issues.  As a prospect in the Red Sox organization, he was suspended for the entire 2005 season for unspecified disciplinary reasons.  He also broke his hand last season in a fight, just after being promoted to AA. 

As a prospect who has struggled past high-A ball, it isn't likely that another team will take a chance on Astacio.  The only question is whether this bat swinging incident is crazier than Jose Offerman's outburst last season.  Offerman charged the mound with his bat last season after being hit by a pitch in an independent league game, swinging and hitting both the pitcher and catcher. 

Offerman was arrested for his incident, however, so I guess that's a leg up for him, but given Astacio's history that may balance the scales.