Reds Musings

by Pete Muhlenkamp 12/31/2008 3:57:00 PM

The Cincinnati Reds' off- season has been interesting on a number of fronts...

1.  Outside of the Yankees, owners have decided to cut back in payroll in anticipation of an economic downturn at their turnstiles.  Either that, or they are using the state of the economy as an excuse to cut back in payroll.  As a result, the Reds may not reach that $80 payroll figure that they had last year.


2.  As a result of the lack of spending on the free agent market (outside of the top- tier free agents), the price tags for many free agents should go down in late January.  Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, Ben Sheets and others will not be able to get the four-year, $60 million contracts they were hoping for and this should help the Reds land Burrell.  In my Realistic Off- Season Plan for the Reds, I advocated the move to sign Burrell to a two- year, $30 million contract.  This lets him try the market when economic times will be better and it lets the Reds move Joey Votto to left field in two years to make room for Yonder Alonso.  Burrell is not Adam Dunn.  He has all of Dunn's positives and not as many of his negatives; he is right- handed, strikes out less, gets on base slightly more, plays slightly better defense, and is in better shape.  Check out the numbers:

Dunn's on base percentage the last four years:  .386, .386, .365, .387

Burrell's OBP the last four years:  .367, .400, .388, .389

Dunn's slugging:  .513, .554, .490, .540

Burrell's slugging:  .507, .502, .502, .504

Dunn's strikeouts:  164, 165, 194, 168

Burrell's strikeouts:  136, 120, 131, 160

Burrell could be had for about $10 million a year come late January if he is still available.  He would bat fourth (between Joey Votto and Jay Bruce).  He would help Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion (batting sixth) reach 100 RBIs because he is on base so much and he would make the awful pickup of Willy Taveras a lot easier to stomach.  Speaking of Taveras...


3.  A leadoff hitter's most important attribute is NOT speed.  That is a common misperception.  The most important thing a leadoff hitter can do is get on base for the big bats behind him to knock him in.  Taveras' on base numbers the last four years:  .308, .367, .333, .325.  If .345 to .355 is league average, Taveras' numbers are awful.  Since he does not get on base much, the Reds' #2 and #3 hitters, Brandon Phillips (who has his own on- base issues) and Votto, will not be driving in many runs.  It would not suprise me to see Votto hit .315/ .375/ .490 with 28 home runs and 85 RBIs.  The Reds won so much last year with Jerry Hairston Jr. in the lineup because he got on base for Phillips, Votto and Bruce.  Hopefully, the Reds can still sign Hairston and subsequently, bench Taveras.  If not, Reds fans will be comparing Taveras to Corey Patterson by June and though its a bit of a stretch, it is not too far off.


4.  Which brings us to Patterson.  The Washington Nationals signed him to a contract last week that confirmed three theories:  A.)  Nationals General Manager Jim Bowden is the worst GM of all time.  B.)  Nationals G.M. Jim Bowden has more incriminating photos of his bosses than any other employee in our country.  C.)  The Nationals have have been the worst baseball franchise of the last five years and with moves like signing Patterson coupled with poor drafts and the inability to lure quality free agents, they are assured of being the worst baseball franchise for the next five years.  To further emphasize this point... Mark Teixeira turned down $20 million more money (same length of contract) to go to his hometown Nationals in order to compete for a pennant with the Yankees.  They cannot even overpay for free agents to go there.


5.  Getting back to my Realistic Off- Season Plan for the Reds... RP Juan Cruz is still out there and Jonathan Sanchez is available through trade from the Giants.  There is still some hope to overcome an awful Taveras decision!

Fantasy: Next Year's Top 10

by Dan Clasgens 12/31/2008 1:44:00 PM

**SIGN-UP NOW TO GET IN MY PLAYOFF FANTASY LEAUGE **

I plan on working on my own 2009 Cheat Sheet and Top 50 Overall list this weekend, but I wanted to share the one from Rotoworld.com's Gregg Rosenthaul.  Of all the big media fantasy gurus, he's the one I most frequently agree with. However, I will promise you one thing, my list will be drastically different than his initial top 10:

1. Adrian Peterson
2. Maurice Jones-Drew
3. Matt Forte
4. Marion Barber
5. Steven Jackson
6. Chris Johnson
7. Brian Westbrook
8. Frank Gore
9. Andre Johnson
10. Calvin Johnson
11. Larry Fitzgerald
12. Brandon Jacobs

Just Missed, in no particular order: Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams, Clinton Portis, Steve Smith, LaDainian Tomlinson, Drew Brees, Marshawn Lynch, Jay Cutler

 
OTHER TAKES HE HAD AS THE SEASON ENDED...
--Fred Jackson ran for 136 yards against the Patriots in one of the most impressive displays I saw all season. New England stacked the box with eight and nine guys every play, and Jackson's vision and leg drive were remarkable. He carried defenders on his back. Jackson finishes with 888 efficient yards from scrimmage and 37 catches on the season. He averaged more yards-per-carry than Marshawn Lynch and is a better receiver. That's bad news for Lynch owners because Jackson has earned a spot as the lesser half of a committee long-term.

--I still need to watch the tape, but Cedric Benson's 462 yards in his last three games will get him some job offers this off-season. His best chance to start, by far, should be staying in Cincinnati.

--Tony Romo's poor finish to the season, against very difficult competition, should keep his price tag enticingly low in next year's drafts.

--LaDainian Tomlinson has undeniably looked fresher the last two weeks. He ran much harder against a collapsing Bucs defense and a terrible Broncos defense, but don't forget the first 14 mediocre weeks and how easy his schedule was. Two good weeks doesn't return him to top-five prominence next year.

COMPLETE ARTICLE

Broncos Let Shanahan Go

by Dan Clasgens 12/31/2008 1:21:00 PM

There is no such thing as forever in sports and Wednesday's firing of Mike Shanahan is all the proof you need. Long gone are the back-to-back Super Bowl trophies and all that is left in the dust is three years of not making the playoffs while posting a 24-24 record.

Shanahan led the Broncos to their only Super Bowl championships, in the 1997 and 1998 seasons, and leaves tied for 15th all-time among NFL coaches, with 154 career wins.

But there were no Super Bowl appearances since 1998, no postseason appearances since 2005 and only one postseason victory since the last Super Bowl.

And, in 2008, the Broncos became the first NFL team since at least 1967 with the start of divisional play to have a three-game lead with three to play and not make the playoffs. The fact that the Broncos played 13 rookies and lost 16 players — including seven tailbacks — to injured reserve did not protect Shanahan in finishing out his contract, which runs through 2011 and was to pay him between $6.5 million and $7 million a season. 

The window of opportunity doesn't stay open too long in this league and over the past decade Shanahan hasn't been able to refind the glory. 

It makes you wonder how good of a coach Shanahan really is. Especially when you look at his numbers with Elway and the numbers without:

  1995-98 1999-2008
W-L 47-17 91-69
Win pct. .734 .569
Division titles 2 1
Playoff W-L 7-1 1-4


WHO'S NEXT
(from Denver Post)

Currently rated 5.0 by 2 people

  • Currently 5/5 Stars.
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5

Tags: ,

NFL

New Year's Resolutions That Never Work Out

by Dan Clasgens 12/31/2008 1:07:00 PM

from NextRound.net:

    * Stop Banging Fatties

    * Don’t Get So Drunk You Crap Yourself

    * Only Gamble with Discretionary Income

    * Don’t Do Any Drugs That Involve a Dealer

    * Only Masturbate When Aroused, Not Just Bored

    * Don’t Use Profanity Around Children or Old People

    * Always Wear a Condom with Strange

    * Don’t Eat Fast Food Sober

    * Pay Down Credit Cards

    * Spend More Time with Family

COMPLETE LIST

Currently rated 5.0 by 1 people

  • Currently 5/5 Stars.
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5

Tags:

Just For Fun

Katz: Big East Top Heavy

by Dan Clasgens 12/31/2008 10:15:00 AM

From Andy Katz, ESPN.com:

The Big East could be setting itself up to grab a record 10, maybe even 11, NCAA tournament bids, including a pair of No. 1 seeds.

That's the best-case scenario after what coaches are calling the most anticipated conference season since the league expanded to 16 teams four years ago. But to make sure this occurs, there must be clear separation. The Big East needs to have an elite ruling class of at least 10 teams, and a six-team lower class that is fodder for the ruling 10. Unfortunately, there may not be room for a middle class. Beating that bottom six won't be enough. The NCAA tournament selection committee will slice apart each member's résumé, like they will for every other at-large candidate.

Beating up on the bottom six -- projected as Seton Hall, Providence, St. John's, DePaul, Rutgers and South Florida -- is a must as a first step, but if there aren't quality wins among the other 10 teams, the worthiness of a bid will be questioned. Going 8-10 in conference play won't mean as much if seven of the eight wins are against the bottom six. A team that goes 9-9 will have to beat a few of the top 10 teams to reach that record. 

Be the first to rate this post

  • Currently 0/5 Stars.
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5

Tags: , , , , , , ,

College Hoops

Dave Parker: Hall of Fame, in or out?

by Adam Bartel 12/31/2008 10:06:00 AM

"I'm sorry, my wrist is broken, I can't write." - Dave Parker, to my mom when she asked him for an autograph for her sons, 1988.  His left wrist was broken.  He wrote right-handed.

THE NUMBERS
2466 G, 2712 H, 339 HR, 1493 RBI, .290 AVG, 154 SB

The Cobra is one of those cautionary tales that needs to be told to any young potential superstar.  Dave Parker went from being one of baseball's elite to just another player for several years, before finally getting things back together later in his career.  Ultimately, it's that down period that brings into question his Hall of Fame candidacy.

Parker was placed in what most would consider an unenviable position: replacing the late Roberto Clemente, one of Pittsburgh's most beloved sport figures ever.  He spent 1973-74 shuttling between the big club and the minors, finally staying up for good in August of '74.  Then in 1975 he broke out as a bona fide superstar, hitting .308 with 25 HR and 101 RBI's, leading the Bucs to the NL East division title and finishing 3rd in the NL MVP voting.  Parker also brought with him an outfield arm that was second to none.

He slipped a little in 1976, but for the next three years he established himself as arguably the best player in baseball.  His average season over those three years was about a .324 average, 25 HR, 100 RBI, and 19 steals, and won the 1978 NL MVP.  During those years, the Pirates stayed at the top of their division, finally breaking out in 1979 when the "We Are Familee" squad won the World Series.

And then...everything just fell apart.  Somewhere in the late 70's-early 80's, he developed a serious cocaine habit.  Eventually it caught up with him, through lack of production, weight gain, and near constant injuries.  He became an enemy of the Pittsburgh fan base, eventually leading him to sign with the Reds in 1984.  The Cobra enjoyed a career resurgence during his Cincinnati years, highlighted by his 1985 campaign, where he hit .312 with 34 HR and 125 RBI, led the Reds to the brink of the playoffs, and should have won the MVP award over Willie McGee.

By 1987, however, he had become more of a one-dimensional slugger, hitting over .280 just once after that point.  He bounced around to several teams before calling it a career in 1991.

So, what to make of Parker's career?  Well, his .290 career average, among Hall of Fame right fielders, is better than only Dave Winfield, Reggie Jackson, and Harry Hooper (who I profess to know nothing about so I'll leave that alone).  But, both Winfield and Jackson were far better sluggers than he, and his 339 home runs is not spectacular, more middle of the pack.  Because he didn't walk much, his .339 OBP would be the worst among Hall-worthy RF's.  Additionally, baseballreference.com lists Luis Gonzalez as the player most similar to Parker in history.  That's not really a ringing endorsement for the Hall.

Parker suffers from the same issues as several other players in this class.  He can claim a period of time where he was among the best in the game, but that period wasn't long enough, and wasn't surrounded by enough quality to warrant induction.  Had the drugs not taken their toll, and had he been able to stretch his dominant streak another 2-3 years, we could have been looking at a 3,000 hit, 400 HR, 200 SB, .300 AVG hitter with multiple MVP's.  But he didn't, and the voters are certainly not going to give him credit for a self-inflicted condition.  I would not give him a vote for the Hall of Fame.

Currently rated 5.0 by 1 people

  • Currently 5/5 Stars.
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5

Tags: ,

MLB

Lamest Sports Commentator Puns

by Dan Clasgens 12/30/2008 2:01:00 PM

from HolyTaco.com:

For some reason, every sports commentator in the world feels the need to use a really lame sports pun for the title of his column or TV segment. Here are the 9 worst.

5. Forde-Yard Dash - Pat Forde
lame sports puns forde yard dash
 
I wonder if Pat Forde started writing about college football just so he could use this pun on the forty-yard dash for his column. It's almost too perfect. Something tells me if his name was Pat Muperbole, he might be writing about a different kind of football.
 

Currently rated 5.0 by 1 people

  • Currently 5/5 Stars.
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5

Tags: ,

Just For Fun

Playoff Fantasy Football

by Dan Clasgens 12/30/2008 11:33:00 AM

I couldn't do it. I couldn't let my fantasy season end.  Join me for some PLAYOFF FANTASY FOOTBALL. I have set up a league with the help of my friends at FAN STAR and now am recruiting some fantasy players to fun.

HERE'S HOW IT WORKS...

--$10 to get in (check/PayPal). I am hoping to get at least 20-30 people if not more to participate. Winner gets 70% of the pot, 2nd place gets 30%. The more people the bigger the pot!

--Each week you can choose whatever players you want to fill out your line-up, but once you use a player you can't use them again. That could lead to problems come Super Bowl time if you don't have anyone left, so there is startegy involved. YOU MUST SET LINE-UP WEEKLY.

--You choose 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 PK, 1 DL, 1 LB, and 1 DB weekly.

--Pretty standard scoring. We will reward 1 point per reception. For complete scoring see the game website.

SIGN-UP NOW

Once you create a team I will e-mail you to arrange payment. If you have questions email me at dan@getsportsinfo.com.

Currently rated 5.0 by 2 people

  • Currently 5/5 Stars.
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5

Tags:

Fantasy Football

Hakeem Nicks' Spectacular Catch

by Chris Murdico 12/29/2008 2:46:00 PM

There have been a lot of great catches in college football this year. The catch by North Carolina wide receiver, Hakeem Nicks, against West Virginia in the Meineke Car Care Bowl on Saturday may be the best of them all. There's no doubt this guy will be a first day draft pick come April and will be a factor on Sundays for whatever team selects him. In case you missed it, here's the amazing catch below.

Currently rated 5.0 by 2 people

  • Currently 5/5 Stars.
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5

Tags: , , ,

College Football

Latest Hoops Rankings: Dec 29

by Dan Clasgens 12/29/2008 1:12:00 PM

Here are the latest men's college basketball polls...

 

Associated Press Top 25
Coaches Poll
1 North Carolina
2 Connecticut
3 Pittsburgh
4 Oklahoma
5 Duke
6 Wake Forest
7 Notre Dame
8 Texas
9 Purdue
10 Michigan State
11 Georgetown
12 UCLA
13 Syracuse
14 Tennessee
15 Villanova
16 Gonzaga
17 Arizona State
18 Louisville
19 Baylor
20 Clemson
21 Minnesota
22 Xavier
23 Michigan
24 Ohio State
25 Butler
1 North Carolina
2 Connecticut
3 Pittsburgh
4 Oklahoma
5 Duke
6 Wake Forest
7 Texas
8 Georgetown
9 UCLA
10 Notre Dame
11 Purdue
11 Syracuse
13 Villanova
14 Arizona State
15 Michigan State
16 Clemson
17 Gonzaga
18 Louisville
18 Tennessee
20 Baylor
21 Minnesota
22 Xavier
23 Ohio State
24 Michigan
25 Marquette

LATEST BRACKETOLOGY - (CollegeHoops.net) 

Currently rated 4.0 by 1 people

  • Currently 4/5 Stars.
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5

Tags: , ,

College Hoops

Bert Blyleven: Hall of Fame, in or out?

by Adam Bartel 12/29/2008 9:38:00 AM

"We're going to do this f***ing thing again, because I just f***ed it up...oh we're live?  I didn't know that." - Bert Blyleven, previewing a Twins/Yankees game as a member of the Twins broadcast team, 2006

THE NUMBERS
4970 IP, 287-250, 3.32 ERA, 3701 K

Though the momentum for the Blyleven candidacy seemed to have waned in 2007, it picked up steam last year when he garnered 61.9% of the needed votes for induction.  Now in his 12th year of eligibility, there's a pretty good chance that he'll get the call before his 15 years expires.  Is he deserving of induction?  Well, that's really a matter of perspective.

Let's address the arguments against Blyleven first.  Most of those begin with "he built up those huge numbers only because he threw so many innings".  And he did pitch a lot of innings (14th most all-time).  12 of the 13 who pitched more than him are all members of the Hall, and the other is Greg Maddux, who I think will probably get the call.  But, in order to pitch a lot of innings, you usually have to be a pretty good pitcher - most managers don't leave a guy in that's getting beat around.

Implied in that argument is that Blyleven was one of those guys that hung around too long.  And in 1988, when he went 10-17 with a 5.43 ERA for the Twins, you could say that he probably could have hung it up, rather than signing with the Angels.  But, he ended up going 17-5 with a 2.73 ERA in 1989, so it's understandable that he might want to keep on pitching from there.  His last two seasons were kinda miserable, so that's a fair point there.  If you pull out those three bad seasons, you get a pitcher that went 261-214 with 3415 K's (9th all-time, instead of 5th).  I'm not sure that really changes the discussion that much.

The next argument against him seems to be regarding his record, and that he didn't have enough wins.  His .534 win percentage is pretty bad in Hall of Fame terms.  Of the 24 Hall of Fame starting pitchers that primarily pitched after World War II, only Nolan Ryan had a worse winning percentage.  But his total wins ranks ninth among the same group.  Additionally, most of the teams he pitched for were fairly middling (.500 or below), and as we all know a pitcher only has so much control over wins and losses.

If that doesn't work, then we have to head into the "he didn't have the wow factor/didn't receive enough Cy Young Award votes" area.  As far as the "wow" factor, you need only ask the players of his era what it was like to go against that curveball.  The answer usually is "not so good".  For the Cy Young votes, well, you'll have to ask the voters why they repeatedly gave pitchers with inferior ERA's and far few strikeouts more votes than Blyleven during his best years in the 70's (see Catfish Hunter, Jim Palmer, Dennis Leonard, etc.).  Most likely, it was due to Blyleven pitching for low profile teams.

The arguments against simply don't convince me anymore.  While I was initially against his induction, doing some research shows that he was plenty comparable to the best pitchers of his time, and he should be given induction into the Hall of Fame.

Currently rated 5.0 by 1 people

  • Currently 5/5 Stars.
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5

Tags: ,

MLB

Ax Comes Down Around NFL

by Dan Clasgens 12/29/2008 9:34:00 AM

As is the case so many years, the first day of the off-season brought some firings...

BROWNS - Savage Fired; Crennel Next? (ESPN.com)
Browns Senior Vice President and General Manager Phil Savage was fired Sunday and, according to ESPN.com, team sources said that coach Romeo Crennel will also lose his job. After the Browns lost their final six games of the year, the team confirmed Savage's ouster. An official announcement on the GM and the coach is expected as early as today and no later than Tuesday. 


JETS - Mangini Let Go (ESPN.com)
Eric Mangini is out as head coach of the New York Jets, 1050 ESPN Radio and various other New York media outlets are reporting. Mangini and the Jets missed out on the playoffs after losing to Miami on Sunday. The Jets lost four of their last five games to finish 9-7. Jets' owner Woody Johnson and general manager Mike Tannenbaum will appear at a 10 a.m. ET news conference. Mangini is not expected to attend.


LIONS - 0-16 Costs Marinelli His Job (MLive.com)
The Detroit Lions' pursuit of at least one victory in 2009 will have to come without Rod Marinelli, who is out as coach, ESPN's Chris Mortensen reports. The decision was made Monday morning. Marinelli, who has one year left on his contract, is 10-38 in three years of guiding the Lions – his first experience as head coach. Adam Schefter, of the NFL Network, reports that the Lions also dismissed most of Marinelli's coordinators and assistants.

Currently rated 4.0 by 1 people

  • Currently 4/5 Stars.
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5

Tags: , , , , ,

NFL

2009 NFL Draft Order

by Dan Clasgens 12/29/2008 9:33:00 AM
1. Detroit
2. St. Louis
3. Kansas City
4. Seattle
5. Cleveland
6. Cincinnati
7. Oakland
8. Jacksonville
9. Green Bay
10. San Francisco
11. Buffalo
12. Denver
13. Washington
14. New Orleans
15. Houston
16. San Diego
17. NY Jets
18. Chicago
19. Tampa Bay
20. Detriot (from DAL)
21. Arizona
22. Philadelphia
23. Minnesota
24. New England
25. Atlanta
26. Miami
27. Baltimore
28. Philadelphia (from CAR)
29. Indianapolis
30. Pittsburgh
31. New York Giants
32. Tennessee

How the NFL determines the draft order:

    * Teams are placed in order from lowest winning percentage to the highest.

    * The Super Bowl winner drafts last and the Super Bowl loser drafts second to last, regardless of winning percentage.

    * Playoffs are only used as a tie breaker for teams with the same winning percentage -- the non-playoff team selects ahead of the playoff team. A playoff team that doesn't make it to the Super Bowl can select higher than a non-playoff team, if they have a lower regular season winning percentage

    * Strength of schedule is the first tie-breaker used for teams with the same winning percentage.

    * Divisional and conference records are the next tie-breaker.

    * Final tie-breaker is a coin toss.

Currently rated 5.0 by 1 people

  • Currently 5/5 Stars.
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5

Tags:

NFL

Week 17 Parting Shots

by Dan Clasgens 12/28/2008 10:55:00 PM

Just a few observations from the final Sunday of NFL regular season action:

  • DETROIT FIRST EVER TO GO 0-16 - The Lions did it! We finally have an 0-16 team. One year after we witnessed our first 16-0 team ever, we now have an 0-16 team as the Lions lost in Green Bay 31-21. The Lions haven't won since Dec. 23, 2007, actually, when they beat the Kansas City Chiefs. And Green Bay is where this woeful streak began at the end of last season. Since then, the Lions have lost 17 straight and been outscored 551-281.

  • PENNINGTON GETS LAST LAUGH - I am a big Brett Favre fan and I really do think that I saw him play his last game ever today. Still, I was rooting for Pennington to come back to the Meadowlands and claim the division title in front of the fans that were so happy to replace him with the future Hall of Famer to start the season. The bonus came with Miami's win also eliminating the Patriots from the playoffs for the first time since 2002. Tony Romo proves once again that he can't handle the pressure of a big game.

  • COWBOYS SUFFFER WORST LOSS IN FRANCHISE HISTORY - After both the Bucs and Bears blew their chances to put pressure on the Cowboys, the Eagles learned just before the kickoff of their game that a win over Dallas would give them the NFC's final playoff berth. The Eagles embarassed the Dallas Cowboys, who I've said all year long is the league's most overrated team. They proved it on Sunday as they lost 44-6 with their season on the line.

  • BLOWING IT DOWN THE STRETCH - If you look at the four teams that missed out on the playoffs on Sunday that at one point looked like a lock - the Cowboys, Bears, Bucs, and Jets - you see one consistent trend. Disappointing finishes. Over the last five weeks of the season the teams mentioned above went 6-14. Enough said. I don't think Lovie Smith or Jon Gruden are going anywhere, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the ax come down with any of these teams.

  • RESTING STARTERS NOT A BAD IDEA - I am not a big fan of how it robs me of a good week of fantasy football, but you can't argue with coaches that sit their players with the playofs in hand. Mike Tomlin is wishing he would have pulled the plug on Ben Roethlisberger before he got knocked out of the game with a concussion. The look on Tomlin's face when his franchise quarterback was on the turf for nearly ten minutes said it all. Big Ben suffered a concussion and should be alright in two weeks when the Steelers next play.

  • FALCONS, RAVENS RIDE THEIR ROOKIE QB'S - Nothing is more impressive than the 1-15 turnaroud Miami had to win the AFC East. Still, I couldn't end this blog post without mentioning how amazed I am that both Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco led the Falcons and Ravens to wildcard berths respectively. I didn't give either team much of a chance to compete this year, especially with rookie quarterbacks. I don't expect either team to go too deep into the playoffs, but I learned my lesson and won't take them for granted either. Both teams are very much capabale of beating their first round opponents next.

Don Mattingly: Hall of Fame, in or out?

by Adam Bartel 12/28/2008 10:00:00 AM

"Don Mattingly was 100% ballplayer, 0% b.s." - Bill James

THE NUMBERS
1785 G, 2153 H, 222 HR, 1099 RBI, .307 AVG

To be a Hall of Famer, a player pretty much has to do two things: play at a high level, and play at that level for an extended period of time.  Players can get in by meeting just one of the two criteria, but they better have been absolutely spectacular in meeting it.  Mattingly falls into the former category; he was an elite player, but for only a short period of time, which makes his case complicated.

Mattingly took the baseball world by storm in 1984 when he took over the starting first baseman role for the Yankees.  As a 23 year old, he flashed a fantastic glove for a youngster, and displayed a batting eye well beyond his years.  He ended the season at the AL batting champion, finishing with a .343 batting average, 23 home runs, and just 33 strikeouts, a trait which would become a standard for Mattingly.  1985 proved to be yet another step forward for him, when he finished the season with 35 home runs and a ridiculous 145 RBI's, en route to winning the AL MVP.  To be fair, he probably wasn't even the best player on his team (that'd be Rickey Henderson), but it's his award nonetheless.

After two more top-notch seasons, he was looking like a first ballot Hall of Famer.  Over his first four years, the line was spectacular: 119 HR, 481 RBI, .337 AVG.  The average held up over 1988-89 (.311/.303), but his power numbers took a bit of a dip, as he hit just 41 home runs over those two years.  That should have been a sign that his best years were behind him. 

Apparently, 1988 and 1989 were when his back injuries started to mount, though Mattingly soldiered through them, but in 1990 they became too much for him to hide any longer.  He missed 60 games and had a miserable season, and from there he only had one or two seasons that could even be considered above average.

So given all of the above, does that merit induction into the Hall of Fame?  You could make a case for him, but it'd be an extremely flimsy one.  His career is shorter than every Hall of Fame first baseman except for Bill Terry (who hit .341 for his career) and Hank Greenberg (who lost most of five seasons to World War II).  His 2153 hits would top only Greenberg, Harmon Killebrew (who topped 500 home runs), and Johnny Mize, who was far more productive in less at-bats than Mattingly.  His .307 average is merely middle of the pack, and 222 home runs is not impressive at all for a first baseman.  Striking out just 444 times is very impressive, but getting only 588 career walks practically negates that (this was the dirty little secret of Mattingly's career; he rarely struck out, but he also didn't take many walks, so his OBP was never as good as you would have expected it to be).

Even more problematic for Mattingly is one of his underrated contemporaries, Will Clark.  While Mattingly garnered a great deal of attention in New York City, Clark was equally as skilled - if not better - while toiling away the first half of his career in the hitter's deathtrap known as Candlestick Park.  Like Mattingly, he lost a good amount of time to injuries, but unlike The Don was able to recover and stay productive for several years afterwards.  And, overall, he was just better.

Player G AB H HR RBI BB K BA OBP SLG OPS+ (park adjusted)
Mattingly 1785 7003 2153 222 1099 588 444 .307 .358 .471 127
Clark 1976 7173 2176 284 1205 937 1190 .303 .384 .497 137

Mattingly had four great seasons, a couple pretty good ones, and several mediocre ones.  Had he turned a couple of those mediocre ones into great seasons (not necessarily extending his career to hang on), the case is probably easier to make...but he didn't.  Maybe if he hadn't broken down so early in his career, this isn't a discussion...but he did.  If you put Mattingly in, then you almost certainly have to put Clark in, you almost have to put Fred McGriff in (who is a whole different matter), you have to take a long look at Keith Hernandez (whose glove alone puts him in the discussion), and you probably have to give Mickey Vernon credit for the years he lost to the war and re-examine his career.

Sorry Don.  No go.

Currently rated 3.0 by 2 people

  • Currently 3/5 Stars.
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5

Tags: ,

MLB

Powered by BlogEngine.NET 1.3.0.0
Theme by Mads Kristensen

About the author

Name of author Author name
Something about me and what I do.

E-mail me Send mail

Calendar

<<  January 2009  >>
MoTuWeThFrSaSu
2930311234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
2627282930311
2345678

View posts in large calendar

Recent posts

Recent comments

Tags