The Dunn Factor

by Dan Clasgens 9/18/2008 7:07:00 PM

Many people haven't noticed, but the Reds are actually playing well of late, including winning four straight games and 9 of 14 in September. The club has not had a winning record in September since 2001. It is pretty interesting when you consider that since the team dealt Adam Dunn to the D-Back in early August how much better they are doing.

Consider, when the Reds traded Dunn they were 52-67 (.437 winning percentage).  Since dealing the slugger the team has gone an 18-14 (.563) streak. Has it been the improved outfield defense.  The loss of his 200+ strikeout swing has certainly been a pro and his general lackadaisical attitude no longer spreads like a virus on to the team.

Don't kid yourself, watching Dunner crush one on to Mehring Way was worth the price of admission. However, those tower shots can win ball games. The Reds have plenty of work to do this off-season, but the strong finish is a fresh start to life after Dunn.

With that in mind, his arrival to Arizona hasn't been the success the D-Backs were hoping for. The team was 60-58 (.505) and one game up in the NL West when they acquired Dunn and have gone 15-18 (.455) since adding the outfielder. They now trail the Dodgers by four games.

As a Diamondback, Dunn has hit just six homers. Throughout his eight-year career, he has averaged a homer every 13.9 at-bats. With the D-backs, it has been one per 19.8 at-bats. They didn't give up much to get Dunn, but it is going to be interesting to see if Arizona makes any attempt to re-sign him.

I'm not taking the J.P. Riccardi approach to Dunn, but when you look at the only stats that matter, Wins and Losses, the numbers don't lie. 

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MLB

1530 Homer Show Notes: Week 3

by Dan Clasgens 9/18/2008 4:41:00 PM

Did you miss this week's Fantasy Playbook as I go on with Lance McAlister on 1530 Homer the Sports Animal? Either way here's my notes from the show...

TREND OR MIRAGE
--QB Carson Palmer – MIRAGE – The only thing more ridiculous than the Bengals’ performance over the first two weeks is some of the trades owners are making coming off a guy that has averaged 4000 PaYds and 28.6 TDs per season in three years as the starter. It may not turn around this week, but his value is at an all-time low

--RB Jonathan Stewart – TREND – He’s slowly winning the job over DeAngelo Williams. The rookie has the edge in both yards per carry (5.4 to 4.0) and TD’s (2 to 0). If he claims sole possession of the starting job in Carolina he will finish as a top ten fantasy running back.

-RB Jamal Lewis – MIRAGE – Another slow starter that could come on the cheap. Lewis has been slowed by a nagging ankle injury, but is getting healthy and the Browns’ schedule is getting ready to ease up a bit as they face the Ravens and Bengals over the next two.

-WR Chris Chambers – TREND – He is going to be the man in the red zone, but is not getting nearly enough targets to be anything more than a WR2. Through two games he has three touchdowns, but only five catches.

-TE Tony Scheffler – TREND – The Broncos’ tight end is officially out of the doghouse. After losing his starting job coming in to the season, he scored twice last week and with Cutler throwing the ball he’s an appealing option.


INJURY REPORT

--LaDainian Tomlinson (toe) – This injury is starting to get frustrating. Both Norv Turner and L.T. have said its improving, but he did not practice on Wednesday. He gets and extra day of rest as the game in on Monday night and that could help. Darren Spoles has emerged as his backup and is a must-have handcuff in available.

--Laurence Maroney (shoulder) – Bill Belichick is up to his old tricks and not providing many details, but Maroney clearly is hurt and listed as questionable. With Lamont Jordan (foot) doubtful, look for Sammy Morris to carry the bulk of the load and fare well against his former team.

--Justin Fargas (groin), Darren McFadden (toe) – Fargas’ injury is more serious, but both Raiders’ running backs are likely going to miss this week’s game against the Bills. McFadden did return to practice Thursday, but even if he goes he’ll likely be limited and sharing time with Michael Bush, who has big time upside.

-Joey Galloway (foot) – He will not play this week for sure and that leaves the duties to Ike Hilliard and Antonio Bryant. I am not crazy about either option but favor Hilliard between the two.


VALUE PACK
(Line-Up Advice – Guys that deserve a look)
--QB – JT O’Sullivan vs. DET: O’Sullivan and offensive coordinator Mike Martz were both rejected by the Lions and they will look for revenge against a defense that is ceding 430 total yards per game. Expect a monster day from the Niners’ new quarterback.

--RB – Ahmad Bradshaw/Derrick Ward vs. CIN: I expect the Bengals to hit rock bottom this week when they travel to the Meadowlands. Fantasy owners can not only expect Brandon Jacobs to have a nice day, but will also see production from the Giants’ backup RB’s.  Both Bradshaw and Ward make for good flex plays.

--WR – Bryant Johnson vs. DET: The former Cardinals’ receiver is finding a home in San Francisco. He was the 49ers’ leading receiver in Week 1 and caught 6 balls for 78 yards and a score last week. Only two teams have allowed more fantasy points to receivers than Lions and that means it’s time to get Johnson into your line-up.

--TE – Tony Gonzalez at ATL: Even with Tyler Thigpen at quarterback for the Chiefs, I am still expecting big things from Tony Gonzalez this week in Atlanta. The Falcons have allowed the third most points to tight ends so far this season and Gonzo is going to serve as the young quarterback’s safety net most of the day.

--DEF – Buccaneers at CHI: The Bucs’ defense no longer dominates fantasy leagues as it used to, but they are solid play in Chicago this week. Last week against Tampa’s NFC South counterparts, the Panthers, the Bears managed just 10 points, gave up three sacks, and turned the ball over twice.

**CATCH THE SHOW ON 1530HOMER.COM - Click on Thursday's 4:00 hour (4:30 weekly)**

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