Reds Musings

by Pete Muhlenkamp 8/14/2008 11:04:00 PM

This article took a vacation over the last two weeks because, quite honestly, it is not easy being a Reds fan.  I try not to be completely negative when it comes to the Reds, but they do not help me out much.  But then, Ken Griffey Jr. was traded and I can write an article again...

THE GOOD

  • It is a miracle that someone took Griffey off of the Reds' hands and actually agreed to pay part of his salary.  The Chicago White Sox made one of the dumbest moves of the season (I call it "substraction by addition") when they traded living, breathing ballplayers for Griffey.  In his first game, the Chicago fans gave him a polite standing ovation.  Things changed quickly: the radio talk shows, the newspapers and the fans have hammered Griffey for his lack of hustle, his poor defense, his sulking, and his slow bat.  And he only has only played ten games.  If he continues his current pace with the White Sox (7-32, no extra base hits), who is going to sign him this off-season?

  • The Reds have come to realize that they need to get a lot faster.  For years, Griffey and Adam Dunn have clogged up the bases, rarely taking an extra base on any single.  They could not run down any balls in the gap on defense.  They set the tone for the rest of the team by being as non- agressive as possible.  They were there to hit home runs, defy shifts, and loaf to first.  That attitude is gone and that cannot be underestimated.  The promotion to the Majors of Chris Dickerson, one of the most athletic players in their whole system, is a sign that management does not want the old attitude to linger.

  • Keeping David Weathers and Jeremy Affeldt instead of trading them was not a bad idea IF the Reds can sign them to extentions.  If they both walk, then this line item falls a few inches downward in this article.

The Bad

  • The Reds got zero for Dunn from the Diamondbacks.  We know they got minor league pitcher Dallas Buck.  It has also been reported that they got pitcher Micah Owings and minor league catcher Wilkin Castillo.  The best of three is probably Buck.  He was considered a first round pick for the 2006 draft until he hurt his arm pitching Oregon State to the College World Series title.  He dropped to the third round and immediately opted for arm rehab instead of surgery when doctors found a partial ligament tear in his elbow after the draft.  He has continued to try to pitch through the injury and has had few positive results.  That is the best prospect of the three.  Major league hitters' bats have told us that Owings is a fifth starter at best.  His numbers this year in Arizona:  104.66 IP, 104 HA, 41 BB, 87 Ks, 14 HR, and a 5.93 E.R.A.  And he may be hurt.  Castillo is considered the best catching prospect that Arizona has.  That is like saying that Curly was the smartest of the Three Stooges.  Castillo has no plus tools- he is very average at everything.  His Triple A line is worrisome: .254/ .305/ .358 in 358 at bats with 54 Ks and 24 BBs.  He is nowhere near a big league hitter because 1.  his strikeouts are double his walks- a consistent sign of failure for minor leaguers when they promoted to the highest level.  2.  A .305 on base percentage indicates a poor approach at the plate and no game plan at the plate.  3.  A .358 slugging percentage at any level is pathedic.  Even Griffey is higher than that this year.

  • Jeff Keppinger is playing hurt and his numbers show it.  Since his return from the DL in mid June, his batting average has dropped from .324 to .262 and he rarely hits any extra base hits.  He broke his kneecap and this is probably preventing him from driving the ball.  My bet is that we hear about this during the off- season.

  • Josh Fogg was terrible when the Reds signed him and he may be worse now.  It is amazing that he is still on the roster.  He will not be on anyone's roster a year from now.

The Ugly

  • Dusty Baker's comments that the 2008 Reds are, "Wayne Krivsky's team, not Walt Jocketty's and not mine" are shameful.  Krivsky does deserve a lot of the blame for the Reds' poor performance, but so too does Baker.  Did Krivsky bat Corey Patterson 245 times, many times in the leadoff spot?  Did Krivsky hit Griffey third despite the statistics, the loafing, and the stubbornness to defy any shift?  Did Krivsky ruin Aaron Harang's arm in San Diego?  Did Krivsky try to start Matt Belisle, Scott Hatteberg and Fogg?  Or how about the appalling lack of energy that the Reds played with until the trade of Dunn this week?  Baker's inability to see his faults just makes matters worse and leaves very little hope for him in the future.  He needs to go ASAP.

  • The Reds have gone down to the deadline with their 2008 first round pick, first baseman Yonder Alonso.  Viewed as a reach with the overall seventh pick, Alonso is wanting much more that last year's number seven pick (Matt LaPorta got just over $2 million from the Brewers).  Everyone knew Alonso's contract demands BEFORE the draft ($7 million signing bonus and a major league contract) so why did the Reds draft him?  Consensus had better players than Alonso on the board, players who had reasonable contract demands.  If the Reds do not sign him, this will be the third straight terrible first round draft pick for Reds Scouting Director Chris Buckley.  The Reds farm system has gone from stocked to below average under his watch.  Yes, some of it is natural with the graduation to the Majors of Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, and Joey Votto, but he has not replaced any of that talent.

UPDATE: GSI Cheat Sheet

by Dan Clasgens 8/14/2008 5:12:00 PM

There is movement on the GSI Cheat Sheet again.

Several QB battles that seem irrevelant at first glance to fantasy owners are starting to have an effect on players at other positions on their teams.

Chad Pennington's arrival to Miami doesn't mean he's suddenly a great fantasy option, but it does make me like Ronnie Brown and even Ricky Williams that much better.

In Cincinnati, Chris Perry and Kenny Watson are on the rise and Rudi Johnson continues to slide down the rankings as he tries to overcome a hamstring injury. Johnson is going to leave owners that gamble on early hamstrung.

Rookies Chris Johnson, Kevin Smith, and Matt Forte appear to have the inside track on being the starting running backs for their teams. What should be made out of it? 

 
COMPLETE RANKINGS 

Fantasy 101: Draft Preparation

by Dan Clasgens 8/14/2008 1:54:00 PM

We continue to get you ready for the upcoming fantasy season with some helpful advice:

MORE FANTASY 101: Starting Your Own League | The Basics

In this session, we are going to be covering some basic fantasy strategies, as well as some do’s and don’ts. When first getting into a fantasy league it is likely that an owner is going to experience some “Rookie Rust”. Just like an NFL quarterback who is in his first year in the league, a rookie owner doesn’t know the little nuances that can help them draft a successful team. Open up your notebooks and start paying attention, class is now in session.

The first thing that a rookie owner (or any owner for that matter) should do is obtain a CHEAT SHEET. Usually a cheat sheet has a list of players in a ranked order, and allows the owner to know which players are available to be drafted. From the cheat sheet an owner can figure out in what order they would draft each player. Many owners rely strictly on the rankings of the cheat sheets they are using because they assume that the magazine knows more than they do, and that they have the most accurate information. This can be true in many instances, but cheat sheets and magazines are often out of date and have players ranked fairly high even though they may be injured or without a team. Because of this, any owner cannot fully rely on a cheat sheet.

After obtaining a cheat sheet, the next thing than an owner should do is formulate a strategy. The owner will use the strategy to figure out when they’ll want to take certain players or positions. While having a cheat sheet is useful, having a good strategy can be more beneficial because it is the basis of how you will draft your team. A cheat sheet can be used to see where other people (or publications) would draft someone, not necessarily where YOU should draft them (it’s just a recommendation). An owner should take that into consideration, and then figure out where they would want to draft a player according to their strategy. Think of the cheat sheet as the bricks and mortar of a house. It will be the materials and tools that the owner will use to help build their house. Unfortunately, a builder cannot build a house without also having a blueprint of how they want to build it (your strategy). Without the materials and the blueprint, the builder is likely to not succeed. However, if the builder has both of them together and follows the blueprint, then success may not be too far away.

Here is a brief description of some commonly used strategies (we’ll go into more detail and complexity in later classes):

Best available player
: The owner selects the best player that hasn’t been drafted, regardless of what position they play and who they have already taken.

Scarcity: The owner selects a running back in the first and/or second round because it is the thinnest position in the draft. It is easier to fill the other positions later on in the draft.

One/Two Combo: The owner selects the number one receiver from a team and also selects that player’s quarterback. The reasoning behind this is because the owner will get double the points (or so it seems) every time the quarterback throws to the receiver.

Balanced: The owner will draft a running back, receiver, and quarterback in the first 3 rounds.


Now that you have a general idea of who and when to draft a player, lets get into what you should and should not do in a draft.

Do: stick to your gut feeling. Regardless of what a magazine says, everything in the Pre-season is just speculation. No one knows for sure.

Don’t: draft players from your favorite team just because you want to root for them. While it would be ideal to be able to both select a player for your fantasy team and have them be on your favorite NFL team, the name of the game isn’t “rooting”. That’s what cheerleaders are for…this is fantasy football! Owners should draft players that will help them WIN their fantasy league.

Do: look at more than one cheat sheet. By doing this, an owner gets a better idea of when players are likely to be drafted. It is pooling from more than one source, and there is no need to put all your eggs in one basket (or magazine).

Don’t: allow someone to pressure you into a draft day trade just because they say you are getting a better deal. Part of fantasy football is out managing the other owners. Don’t allow yourself to be a victim of “peer pressure” or “bullying” tactics.

Do: cross off each player as they are selected in the draft. By doing this you’ll know which players you can select, and won’t get pinned as the person who says, “Has this guy been drafted yet?”

Don’t: be afraid to tweak your strategy in the middle of the draft. If a highly touted player happens to slip a few picks then by all means take him. A strategy is just a general guideline to follow. By no means is it set in stone.

Now that you know what you need to do to get prepared for your draft, you are one step closer to drafting a successful fantasy football team. Next week we’ll get into more in depth strategies, as well as certain things that an owner should consider when drafting a player. There is the bell, class is dismissed!

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Sabathia: Cy Young Candidate

by Dan Clasgens 8/14/2008 1:38:00 PM

Rarely do you see a pitcher that gets traded in the middle of the year that is Cy Young caliber, much less the reigning AL Cy Young winner.  However, the Brewers' acquistion is something special and there is now the chance that Sabathia could enter into discussion as a NL Cy Young candidate this season.

The lefty picked up another win last night by pitching seven solid innings to remain perfect with the  Brewers, who extended their winning streak to eight games. Sabathia allowed one run and nine hits and lowered his ERA with Milwaukee to 1.55. Sabathia (7-0) has been sensational for the Brewers in eight starts since being acquired from Cleveland in a trade on July 7. The reigning AL Cy Young winner won his 10th straight decision to extend his career high. Sabathia looks like his former Cy Young self and still has a lot to pitch for with free agency looming.

Meanwhile, Brandon Webb has statred to get out his funk but still is not running away with the honors. He leads the league with 17 wins and is fourth in ERA at 2.88. Those are very respectable numbers for sure. Are they good enough though to shun Sabathia from consideration?

If Sabathia continues his amazing run and leads the Brewers to the playoffs, or even better a league title, he should receive not only consideration for the Cy Young but also warrant talk as the MVP. The Brewers have not been to the playoffs since 1982 and put in all on the table to rent this guy and he has delivered.

Milwaukee sits at 70-51 and trail the Cubs by 3.5 games in the NL Central, but lead the NL Wildcard by 4 games over St. Louis. 

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