GSI Mock Draft: Round 4

by Dan Clasgens 7/14/2008 10:42:00 PM

The pressure is growing as owners start regretting they waited too long to grab that second RB or WR1.

RECAP: ROUND 1 | ROUND 2 | ROUND 3

Here's Round 4:
31. FISCHER - T.J. Houshmandzadeh - CIN
32. WETZEL - Steve Smith - CAR
33. SIMON - Torry Holt - STL
34. SIMS - Chad Johnson - CIN
35. MURDICO - Darren McFadden - OAK
36. DINSMORE - Plaxico Burress - NYG
37. BOLTON - Brandon Marshall - DEN
38. HUMBERT - Drew Brees - NO
39. CLASGENS - Carson Palmer - CIN
40. PREUTH - Donovan McNabb - PHI

My Pick: I really wanted to add a stud WR to compliment Braylon Edwards, but with a couple of them that I still like on the board I opted to go QB with Palmer being my guy. At No. 39 overall he's far from a steal, but I do expect the Bengals' running game to help him out this year keeping his INT-count down and if Chad Johnson shuts up and plays, Palmer is still hands down a top 5 fantasy QB. I like him much better than McNabb or anybody else is on the board. I figured Palmer would not see it back to me, but guessed that at least one of the other wideouts I was looking at would.

Biggest Reach: I am tempted to list Darren McFadden here because I don't like him in Oakland. However, the reality is this is his true value as many will take him at this point of the draft, if not earlier based on hype alone. The bad pick here once again belongs to Mr. Preuth. Donovan McNabb would likely of slipped another 20 spots in this draft and even if he didn't there are a handful of other similar options. He's coming off another season in which he failed to play in all 16 games and his numbers suggest he's clearly on the decline.

Final Take: Have a plan of action going into a draft. It is important to break each position down in to tiers and know what players will go where. That is how you know when is the right time to pull the trigger. In a fantasy draft it is important to be the one to start the runs, not end them. Overall, the Round was rather uneventful. It did once again provide evidence for my argument of getting your RB2 early on though. I was amazed to see three QB's come off the board in this round.

MLB Potential Flukes

by Adam Bartel 7/14/2008 7:28:00 PM

Every year you see pitchers come out of nowhere to have phenomenal first halves of the season, or great ones surprisingly struggle.  And for every Roger Clemens, there's a Jack Armstrong.  The trick is to figure out when a pitcher's breakout is for real, or just a mirage.

Given that, here's some pitchers that could very easily slide one way or the other.  Two of the biggest indicators that I usually look at are hit % (the percentage of balls in play that fall for hits), and strand % (the percentage of baserunners that fail to score).  Generally, those numbers shouldn't slide too much past 30% and 70% respectively - if they do, you're looking at a potential correction.  Hardball Times and Baseball Prospectus go way deeper into these, and about a million other statistical measures.

Justin Duchscherer (OAK) - 10-5, 1.78 ERA - 21 walks in 101 IP is nothing to sneeze at.  But, you look at that 5.6 K/9 IP, and you look at that 21.6 H%, and you've got to figure that eventually, those balls that are hitting the bats will eventually fall for hits.

Gavin Floyd (CHW) - 10-5, 3.63 ERA - He might be the most likely of any MLB pitcher to regress.  Hit % of 22.7, S% of 76.1, and a strikeout/walk ratio barely over 1.5.  Plus, he's got no real history of success in the majors.  Red flags everywhere with this kid.

Armando Galaragga (DET) - 7-3, 3.27 ERA - He kind of came out of nowhere to become the Tigers' stopper.  But there's just nothing there to support these numbers.  He's young, so the control could improve; right now he's just an average control pitcher with a lucky 76.5 S%.

Joe Saunders (LAA) - 12-5, 3.07 ERA , Scott Olsen (FLA) - 5-4, 3.77 ERA , Greg Smith (OAK) - 5-7, 3.43 ERA - All three have H% around 25, S% around 75, none have great control, and all three make Galaragga look like a flame thrower.  All three are easily candidates to fall apart.  Go ahead and throw Aaron Laffey (5-5, 3.45 ERA) in there as well.

And for some possible returns to form:

Bronson Arroyo (CIN) - 7-7, 5.97 ERA & Aaron Harang (CIN) - 3-11, 4.76 ERA - Inflated hit rates, together again!  Both of them are throwing strikes (8.0 K/9 IP), both have very respectable control, and both have H% over 33.  Good chance for a turnaround.  There's one caveat though; the fact that these guys have high hit rates may be because the Reds defense stinks, so there may not be as big of a correction as expected.

Roy Oswalt (HOU) - 7-8, 4.56 ERA - He's not striking out batters at a huge rate, but he's still got a 3.4 K/BB ratio, and his hit rate is a little high.  As consistent as he's been throughout his career, he could easily post big numbers in the 2nd half.

Javier Vazquez (CHW) - 7-7, 4.61 ERA - Javy's been throwing some serious heat this year (117 K's in 121 IP), but he's got an unlucky hit rate close to 34.  He's one of those guys that just never goes away, so expect him to improve considerably.

Fantasy Football: Change In Draft Strategy?

by Jimmy Dinsmore 7/14/2008 4:46:00 PM

Last year in fantasy football it was the year of the wide receiver. WRs from everywhere, including the waiver wire, and late rounds proved invaluable to fantasy owners. Owners, much like myself, who always subscribed to the theory that WRs are a dime a dozen got burned. Compile that with a significant amount of RB injuries and underperforming RBs and the WR position became pivotal to fantasy success.

That trend is likely to be at the front of the minds of fantasy owners this year when they draft. In our current mock draft, we're through 4 rounds now and of the first 40 picks, 13 are WRs. That's almost 33%. By my count we're already down to the third tier of WRs and some 2nd tier RBs and QBs are still on the board. So, clearly, my advice to you this year is don't overlook the WR position.

Randy Moss is a first rounder. TO is a second rounder and even Reggie Wayne or Larry Fitzgerald could be late 2nd rounders. In our GSI draft, I passed up Fitzgerald in Round 3 and took Tony Romo instead. I have now regretted that decision as there would've been elite QBs still available for me in Round 4. Instead I'm now stuck with Plax Burress as my top WR. So, I've got to find points and scores in another way because my other advice to you is, don't reach. Just because I missed out on the tiered WRs, does not mean I'm stretching for a Joey Galloway or the like earlier than his value warrants.

Patience pays off, and this is where you research pays off. Find that unheard of guy, that underperformer veteran or that rookie that you think will break out.

Remember, both Wes Welker and Dwayne Bowe played major roles for their teams and helped many fantasy owners. Both guys were late round picks or undrafted free agents. So, stay calm, but don't hold tight to old ways of thinking. Always take the best available player, even if it is WR. 

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Fantasy Football

Packer out at CBS

by Ben Bolton 7/14/2008 12:00:00 PM

According to the Associated Press, CBS Sports' lead college basketball announcer Billy Packer will end his 27-year tenure with the network.  Clark Kellogg will take his place in the booth along side Jim Nantz. 

Packer confirmed the move Sunday to the Miami Herald, through a CBS official.  Packer said that he is going to pursue other basketball projects and had declined further comment. 

Kellogg said he was "excited, humbled, and quite pleased" to be moving out of the studio and going courtside.

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College Hoops

Reds By The Numbers: At The Break

by Greg Shoemaker 7/14/2008 8:51:00 AM

Here's a look at the good and bad on Cincinnati at the All-Star break.

The team is 7-1 when Jerry Hairston leads off and Jeff Keppinger bats second.  They are 6-0 since they both came off the DL.

Jay Bruce had six extra-base hits in his first seven games as a Red.  He has just eight in the 37 games since.

Ken Griffey Jr. is just 24-111 (.216 BA) since June 3rd.  He has driven in just 11 teammates during the slump.

Joey Votto had 10 extra-base hits from April 15 thru April 30th.  He has just nine in the last 38 games.

After hitting .172 in May, Edwin Encarnacion has turned it around.  The third baseman is hitting .329 since June 9th with 15 of his 27 hits going for extra bases.

Despite a .228 BA, Adam Dunn is on track for career highs in HR's, RBI's, SF's and Walks.

Brandon Phillips has seen his Slugging % drop 58 points since June 1st.

David Ross is 9 for last 25 with four doubles and two homers.  He had three doubles and one home run in his first 78 at-bats to begin the season.

Javier Valentin had 20 HR's and 70 RBI's in his first two seasons as a Red.  He has just 10 HR's and 68 RBI's in 76 more AB's in the two and a half seasons since Corey Patterson has just nine hits in 71 at-bats with 0 walks since May 21st.

The ace of this staff, Aaron Harang is just seven games over .500 (60-53) in 142 starts as a Red.  Is that really an ace?

Don't worry about Johnny Cueto throwing to many innings. His natural progression is as follows:  98 IP in '05, 138 in '06, 161 in '07 and 111 IP to date in '08. He is on pace for 205 IP's  which falls right in line with his minor league trends.

Edinson Volquez is following the same path.  His natural progression is as follows:  131 IP in '04, 140 in '05, 154 in '06, 178 in '07  and 111 IP to date in '08.  He is on pace for 205 IP's also.

Bronson Arroyo (7-7, 5.97) has had only one losing season since 2002.

Four starters (Harang, Arroyo, Cueto and Volquez) have combined to make 80% of the teams starts.

Four starters (Thompson, Fogg, Bailey and Belisle) have combined to make 20% of the teams starts.  They have gone 2-11 with a 7.69 ERA in 87.7 in 19 starts.

Mike Lincoln has given up just 3 ER's in his last 17 appearances, lowering his ERA 2.76 points to 3.89.  He has fanned 25 while walking just eight in 23 IP's during that stretch.

Jared Burton has given up just 3 ER's in his last 27 appearances (since May 14th), lowering his ERA 2.62 points to 2.23.  He has fanned 27 in 30.2 IP's during that stretch.

Whiff's are good -  Pitching staff needs just 330 more strikeouts to equal 2007 total.  They are averaging 8.5 K's per game that is two more a contest from a year ago.

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