A quick take before the list. On Wednesday, Dusty Baker was asked about Aaron Harang's arm injury and if he thought it resulted from the long relief outing in San Diego that he threw on short rest and the resulting starting assignment three days later. Baker's response, as printed in the Cincinnati Enquirer, was, "No, it goes back before that." What!!!! Does that alarm anyone else? That means he knew about Harang's arm injury and still threw him in long relief on short rest and then subsequently started him on short rest. The man is a menace- eat his contract.
On to better news...
Four times a year, I publish an updated rankings of the Reds Prospects. Usually, I only list the top ten, but I had requests to expand it. So today, we expand to twenty plus two extra (for reasons explained below). The system has definitely fallen to the middle of the pack with the graduation of Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Johnny Cueto to the Majors. The Reds now have a lot of mid- level talent in the minors- the type of guys who could have three or four productive years or may just be role players. This could change- some players like Kyle Lotzkar and Neftali Soto have the potential to be better than productive. There is a big drop in talent after #6 on the list and an even bigger drop after #10. So here we go:
1. Yonder Alonso *, 1B, unsigned: The 2008 number one draft pick is, by far, their number one prospect when he signs. He has a higher ceiling and a better potential for longetivity than anyone else. Even though I would have preferred Georgia shortstop Gordon Beckham, this is Reds Senior Director of Scouting Chris Buckley's best pick in his three year stint with the club.
2. Daryl Thompson, SP, AAA: Not quite ready for prime time, but may be by 2009. He is conquering Triple- A.
3. Homer Bailey*, SP, AAA: He is losing prospect status because he will no longer be a rookie after this season and because he is being called up again by the Reds to fill in for Harang. In the meantime, his fastball has no movement, he cannot get his breaking stuff over the plate and his character is being questioned. He now projects as a #3 starter at best.
4. Todd Frazier, IF/ OF, High- A: The 2007 second round draft pick has already been moved off of shortstop and is being auditioned on all corners of the diamond. His bat (.289/ .357/ .442 in 197 at bats at Sarasota) will have to carry him to Cincinnati and it should.
5. Chris Valaika, SS, AA: Valaika will probably not make the Majors as a shortshop, but could as a second baseman or third baseman. His bat (.293/ .353/ .457 in 232 at at bats at Chattanooga) will be above average at second, but only average for a third sacker.
6. Josh Roenicke, RP, AAA: Rarely do you see relief pitchers ranked highly on lists like this. Roenicke deserves it- he throws his fastball in the mid to upper 90s and throws a cutter about 10 mph slower. He is already 25 years old so he should be in Cincinnati by the end of the year.
7. Neftali Soto, IF, Low-A: Here is another player who is going to be moved off of shortstop. In the meantime, the Reds will wait patiently for the 19- year old to mature into a power hitter. Keep in mind that he broke Juan Gonzalez' youth home run record in Puerto Rico.
8. Kyle Lotzkar, SP, Low-A: The Canadian has stuck out 38 batters in just 26 innings at Dayton to go along with a 3.86 ERA and an opponents' average of .213 against him. This is pretty impressive considering he was facing high school hitters just 14 months ago. Many considered him a steal when the Reds got him with the 53rd pick overall in last year's draft.
9. Drew Stubbs, OF, AA: Stubbs will make the Majors due to his glove, arm and legs, all of which are plus tools for the 23- year old. He probably will not be much of a hitter due to his lack of contact at the plate. The drafting of Stubbs over Tim Lincecum in 2006 is the worst mistake that former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky made.
10. Zach Stewart, RP, Low-A: The Reds 2008 third round pick will not be in Dayton much longer: 0.73 ERA in 12.33 innings with nine strikeouts and an opponents average of .119.
11. Juan Francisco, 3B, High-A: There are many others who are much higher on Francisco and his power potential that I am. He has cut his strikeout rate, but his low .287 on base percentage tells me that he is still making far too many poor decisions at the plate. This has been the knock on him since he signed so there has been no progress there.
12. Devin Mesoraco, C, Low-A: Buckley's first rounders in 2006 (Stubbs) and 2007 (Mesoraco) are losing their luster. Mesoraco is not putting up great numbers (.251/ .305/ .368 in 171 at bats at Dayton) and he is not impressing scouts: http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7773
13. Brandon Waring, 3B, Low-A: His 97 strikeouts in 273 at bats puts Adam Dunn to shame. The seventh- round pick from last year is driving the ball into the gaps and over the walls- he has 15 home runs and a .495 slugging percentage.
14. Matt Maloney, SP, AAA: His ceiling is not as high as some pitchers listed below, but he has proven more and done it at a higher level. He will make it to Bigs by the end of this year.
15. Sean Henry, LF, AA: Anyone that plays left field needs to hit. Henry, who came over from the Mets in exchange for Jeff Conine, has done just that: .324/ .400/ .506 in 247 at bats in Double- A. He has been compared to ex- Red Cody Ross- not bad considering the season Ross is having with the Marlins.
16. Ramon Geronimo, RP, High- A: He is putting up some eye- popping numbers in Sarasota: in 38.33 innings, he has a 0.70 ERA, 44 Ks, 10 BBs, and an opponents average of .154. He is definitely someone to watch. The only downside is his age- he is about to turn 25. (He needs to be promoted... pronto.)
17. Sam LeCure, SP, AA: He has a lot of upside. He could be a #3 starter as opposed to Maloney, Jukich and Watson who are all #4s at best.
18. Ben Jukich, SP, AA: He is having a solid season thanks to increased control and keeping the ball down. He has given up only five home runs in 111.66 innings.
19. Sean Watson, SP, AA: He is struggling since his promotion to Chattanooga: in 14.33 innings, he has a WHIP of 1.95, an ERA of 9.42 and 14 walks. He does have 18 strikeouts though.
20. Paul Janish, SS, AAA: Janish showed his excellent glovework in his brief stint with the Reds last month. He can field at the major league level. His bat may hold him back.
*= Since Alonso is unsigned and Bailey is about to be promoted to Cincinnati, here are two more...
21. Adam Rosales, IF, AAA: His make- up is off the charts. He could be a professional coach one day.
22. Philippe-Alexandre Valiquette, RP, High- A: This lefthander is striking out over a batter an inning so far this season between Low- A and High- A.
OVERRATED
1. Travis Wood, SP, AA: not a prospect at all... cannot miss enough bats or get enough outs and he has already peaked.
2. Pedro Viola, RP, AA: I, along with many others, have missed on him. He has followed up a breakthrough 2007 with a miserable 2008.
3. Chris Dickerson, OF, AAA: athletic, but never puts up good numbers.