With the 23rd pick in the first round, the Pittsburgh Steelers select Rashard Mendenhall, RB, University of Illinois. With two good RBs on the Steelers already in Willie Parker and Najeh Davenport, the Mendenhall pick was a bit of a surprise. But going into the 2008 season, he's one of my Rookies To Watch (that's what the RTW stands for in case you were wondering).

Mendenhall comes to Steel Town as the Big Ten Conference Offensive Player of the Year in 2007. He won the honor by finishing his junior season at Illinois with 1681 rushing yards and 19 total TDs. Those numbers had him in the Heisman talk last year as well. The Steelers got a steal (pun intended) getting Mendenhall so late in the first round.

The question though, especially for fantasy football players, is how will he fit into the somewhat crowded backfield in Pittsburgh? Parker is the No. 1 guy on the depth chart, but that's not set in stone. He has the speed but last year was a disappointing season for Parker owners. While he did put up over 1400 total yards, he only scored twice. After scoring a total of 16 TDs in 2006, this was a drastic drop-off. That's not a good sign going forward, especially with a backfield with as much talent as the Steelers currently have. With Davenport taking some carries away from Parker, including the usually promising goal line carries, Parker's value takes a big hit. Davenport scored a total of seven TDs last year and rushed for almost 500 yards.

And now steps in Mendenhall. The guy is simply a beast. Depending on how he does in training camp, he could steal carries from Parker and Davenport as well. Eventually the guy is going to be the No. 1 back in Pittsburgh, especially if Parker has another "down" year. Now, this isn't to say that Mendenhall is going to be a fantasy stud from day one, but drafting him in the middle to late rounds and stashing him on your bench could make for a great player to plug in once the bye weeks start. Should the injury bug bite Parker this season, Mendenhall could be the guy to fill-in for him, and possibly take his job should he perform well.

Training camp and the pre-season are going to be good measuring sticks in the early going for Mendenhall. Even with the Steelers moving more toward a balanced offensive attack, the team still relies heavily on the run in order to protect their QB, Ben Roethlisberger. If Mendenhall can show that he can block well in passing situations, that's even more of a plus and an even better chance to see him get in and catch some passes as well.

Mendenhall is going to be a fantasy stud. My concerns for Parker aside, he could just lose the job outright at some point because Mendenhall is just that good. He's no Adrian Peterson (the one in Minnesota, not Chicago) but he could be over time, if not better considering Peterson's injury concerns. With the skill set he has along with his potential to be a great fantasy player at the position that most consider fantasy gold, Mendenhall is definitely a Rookie To Watch this season.

This is a make or break week for the Reds as they (and their fans) decide their plan of action for the rest of the season and more than likely it will be break...

POSITIVES

• An updated Reds Top Prospects List is coming tomorrow!!!
  
  
• At least the Reds are not the Washington Nationals, who are one of the worst teams we have seen over the last 50 years.  When your ace is Tim Redding, a guy who would not even be in many teams' starting rotation, you can only hope for the future.  (Doesn't it seem like Jim Bowden is always talking the future and staying patient and never about what is happening right now?)  The Nationals' farm system is just above average- maybe 12th or 13th out of the 30 clubs so there really is not much of a future either.  There is no bigger mystery is baseball than how Jim Bowden has a job.
  
  
• After years of neglect starting with the ownership of Marge Schott, the Reds have become major players in the Latin American free agent market.  They barely missed signing prized pitcher Michael Iona, but they did recently sign Junior Arias, a slick fielding shortshop that can hit.  They are also the favorites for outfielder Yorman Rodriguez who is expected to get a Venezuelan record signing bonus of around $2.75 million.  Rumors abound that Rodriguez is no longer taking offers because he has committed to sign with the Reds when he turns 16 in August.  Scouting reports on Rodriguez range from comparisons to Eric Davis to complete bust.  Excluding Rodriguez, the Reds have already spent $3 to $4 million on Latin prospects this year- unheard of just five years ago.
  
  
• The weekly He Would Look Good in a Reds Uniform:  Hong-Chih Kuo.  The Dodgers have him in the bullpen to protect his often- injured arm and he has flourished:  in 50.33 innings, he has a 0.95 WHIP, 60 Ks, 12 BBs and a 1.79 ERA.  He could have been had for peanuts a year ago when he was hurt but, now, how about Adam Dunn for him?
  
  
• After recommending John Feinstein's new book, Living on the Black, last week, I received questions about other baseball books that I would endorse.  Here are my top five must- read baseball books:  1.  Stolen Season:  A Journey Through America and Baseball's Minor Leagues by David Lamb.  2.  Moneyball by Michael Lewis.  3.  Ball Four by Jim Bouton.  4.  any year of Baseball Prospectus the book from Baseball Prospectus.  5.  Three Nights in August by Buzz Bissinger.
  
  
• Jeff Keppinger's recent career- long 22 at- bat hitless streak is nothing to worry about.  He hit plenty of balls hard during that stretch.  He just hit them right at defenders.

NEGATIVES

• The fifth starter slot continues to haunt the Reds.  Again, that is why you do not spend $48 million on a 70-inning closer especially when Jared Burton could handle the role.  Spend that money on the starting rotation!
  
  
• Former Red outfielder Cody Ross, now with the Marlins, is vastly outperforming Ken Griffey Jr.  Ross' numbers in only 225 at bats:  .267/ .319/ .529 with an OPS of .847.  He has 15 HRs, 47 RBI, and four stolen bases.  Griffey's numbers in 298 at bats:  .238/ .350/ .399 with an OPS of .750.  He has 11 HRs, 38 RBIs and zero stolen bases.  This is why the most overused quote of the year (orginating from Dusty Baker), "You know what you are going to get from him by looking at the back of his baseball card" is so stupid.  Those numbers are not on Griffey's baseball card, but this is about what Griffey is going to produce the rest of his career.  It is called decline due to age and a baseball card will not show or predict that.
  
  
• Time to gloat... Aaron Harang has been Bakerized.  I said at the time it happened that Baker misused Harang by pitching him in long relief in San Diego and starting him later that week on short rest when there were other options.   Harang has been awful except for one start ever since.  It is time to really worry about Aaron Harang.
  
  
• Outside of Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips, there is nobody in the Reds lineup that could start for the Brewers.  You could make an arguement for Jeff Keppinger over J.J. Hardy, but Hardy has been hot with the bat and is a far superior defender.  Only Edison Volquez would be in their starting rotation.  Harang would be in long relief or on the DL by now.
  
  
• When comparing the Reds to a healthy Cubs lineup, the same exact names apply.  Maybe Harang, Johnny Cueto or Bronson Arroyo could get the nod over Jason Marquis for the fifth slot in the rotation.
  
  
• On pages 136- 137 in Feinstein's book, Living on the Black, Tom Glavine is quoted as saying, "It amazes me during spring to watch young guys in bunting drills clearly not trying and not paying attention.  Every once in a while, I'll say something to one of them because it's pretty clear to me they don't understand how helpful it can be to you to be a good bunter... there are guys who just won't concentrate.  They think their job is to just throw the ball."  He is implying that you can tell who is a hard working, serious pitcher in many ways.  One of them is watching a pitcher bunt.  By the way, Cueto is first among Reds pitchers in sacrifice bunts with six while Volquez is tied for second with four.