Wimbledon Preview: Changing Of The Guard?

by Adam Bartel 6/21/2008 6:32:00 AM

Years from now, when people look back at the 2008 Championships at Wimbledon, there's a good chance that they'll have determined that this was the tournament when the torch was officially passed from perennial #1 Roger Federer to Rafael Nadal as the best player in the game.

The great Raja has struggled mightily (for him at least) this season, winning only two tournaments in 2008, neither of which was against top-notch competition.  He's lost eight times this year, including defeats to lesser lights like Andy Murray, Mardy Fish, and Radek Stepanek, more than he had in the previous 14 months.  He's 1-4 against the top two players (Nadal and Novak Djokovic), and in his two Grand Slam matches against them has failed to win a set.  Players are no longer afraid to attack and rally with him from the baseline.

People may look at Nadal and see him as strictly a clay court player, but they'd be badly mistaken.  Rafa came within a point of knocking off Federer at Wimbledon last year.  He won at Queen's Club last week, defeating Djokovic in the finals, and making grass court expert Andy Roddick look silly in the semis.  Even though it'd be extremely difficult to mathematically take over the #1 spot during the tournament, a win here would all but solidify his claim to being the best player in the world.

What Federer has in his favor is the draw.  His quadrant contains a slew of perennial underachievers (Tomas Berdych, Fernando Gonzalez, Mario Ancic), and strong player with questionable clay court skills (David Ferrer), and a former Wimbledon champion that's past his prime (Lleyton Hewitt).  His only downfall is that he's in the same half of the draw as Djokovic.  Novak has a relatively easy path to the semis, with the only potential stumbling block being a quarterfinal match against the 6'10" Croatian, Ivo Karlovic.

Nadal's path is a bit trickier.  He faces a possible second-round match against Uinversity of Georgia product John Isner.  The 6'9" monster has a tremendous serve that will be hard to handle on grass.  If he can get the first couple sets to tiebreakers and steal a couple key points, it could prove to be troublesome for Nadal.  He also has the U.K.'s favorite son, Andy Murray, looming as a potential quarterfinal match.

My guess is that we won't even get to see a classic Federer/Nadal final for the third consecutive year.  I'm predicting a final four of Federer, Djokovic, Nadal, and James Blake.  While it would be great to say that Federer could make his way to another Wimbledon final, his performance in the Grand Slams this year just makes that a hard call.  I'll say Nadal wins the title over Djokovic.

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