There are many college basketball fans out there that can back up their picks of all 64 tournament games based on the strengths and weaknesses of each team. There are just as many that can justify filling out a bracket by choosing which team has the dominant mascot. Regardless of what strategy is used by the thousands of people filling out brackets this week, everyone will, to some degree, base their decisions on the seedings. Here is a look at how the seeds have fared in the history of the NCAA tournament. Please note that all statistics are based on 1985 (the year the tournament was expanded to 64 teams) to the present unless otherwise noted.

#1 versus #16
Nearly everyone knows that a #16 seed has never won a game in the tounament. When and if that ever does occur it will likely be a result of significant injuries and/or major foul trouble by the top team. And that is something not even the best prognosticators can predict. The last #1 seed to not make it out of the second round was Kentucky in 2004. Since then, all but Duke in 2005 made it to the Elite Eight. Still, there has never been a Final Four with all #1 seeds. The last time three top seeds made it was in 1999. And it was just two years ago when none of the #1 seeds made the Final Four - the only time that has happened in 23 years.

#2 versus #15
The last time a #15 beat a #2 was in 2001 when Hampton triumphed over Iowa State. That was just the fourth time such an upset occurred. Neither of those four teams made it past their next opponent. Only four #2 seeds have won the national championship, the last being Connecticut in 2004. Last year marked just the fourth time that two #2 seeds made the Final Four whereas there have been seven times that the last weekend did not include a second seed. Two years ago, two #2 seeds, Ohio State and Tennessee, did not make it past the second round.

#3 versus #14
Every year there is at least one #3 seed that does not make it past the second round. In 2005, three of them were out after the first weekend and in 1997 all four #3 seeds failed to make it to the Sweet Sixteen. In total, 48 of a possible 92 #3 seeds failed to get out of the first two rounds. (Quick math - more than half lost early.) However, two recent champions have come from the #3 seed - Florida in 2006 and Syracuse in 2003. Before then, the only #3 to win it all was Michigan in 1989.

#4 versus #13
While early round success has been nearly as good for the #4 seeds as the #3's in the history of the tournament, recent years have been much worse. In the last five years only six of a possible 20 #4 seeds made it to the Sweet Sixteen. However, two of those made it to the Final Four - LSU in 2006 and Louisville in 2005. Only two #13 seeds went on to win a second game and advance to the second weekend - Bradley in 2006 and Richmond in 1988. Both lost in the Sweet Sixteen.

#5 versus #12 and #6 versus #11
Both the #5 and #6 seeds have the same winning percentage in the first round of the tournament - 68%. That means at least two and probably three of the #5's and #6's won't be playing beyond this Friday. The last #5 seed to make the Final Four was Michigan State in 2005. The last #6 was Michigan in 1992. On the other end, the #11's have had much better success than the #12. Two years ago George Mason made an amazing run to the Final Four. LSU did the same back in 1986. The furtherst a #12 has gone in the tournament was Missouri who made it to the Elite Eight in 2002.

#7 versus #10
Last year presented a bit of an anomaly in the stats between the #7 and #10 seeds. Traditionally, the #7 only wins 62% of the matchups. But in 2007 all four of the #7 seeds prevailed. That means that, statistically, don't be surprised if three or four of them go down in the first round this year. The last time there were four upsets of #10's over #7's was 1999. No team of either seed has made the Final Four. The last #7 to make the Elite Eight was West Virginia in 2005. In 2002, Kent State was the last #10 to make it that far.

#8 versus #9
Historically, the #8 seed has only beaten the #9 seed 42 times in 92 attempts. Meaning that statistically, the #9 seed is a slight favorite. However, here is where things get strange. In the last 10 tournaments, the #8 seed has dominated in even numbered years, 17-3. In odd years the numbers reverse and the #9 has dominated 17-3. And all of the results have been either a 3-1 or 4-0 advantage. No #9 has ever made the Final Four. In 2000, two #8's made it that far - North Carolina and Wisconsin. But there is only one truly great #8, the one that started it all - Villanova. In 1985 Coach Valvano and his Wildcats set the standard for the field of 64 by winning the national championship. 

This post is probably a day late (stupid life getting in the way of blogging), but a few teams out there that had their bubbles burst on Sunday have been doing quite a bit of whining.  Lucky for them, I'm just the kind of guy to give them a little tough love.  Who's up first?

SYRACUSE - Geez, we have this conversation every year, don't we?  Ok, let's get to the point.  Your non-conference schedule is just plain mediocre.  Now it's better than it usually was, and you got some decent wins over tournament teams like Siena, St. Joe's, and Cornell (though I doubt that's why you scheduled those games).  But you've got three out of conference losses to NIT squads (Ohio State, UMass, Rhode Island), and two of those were at home!  Yeah, you've got wins over Georgetown and Marquette, but you've also got losses at Cincinnati and South Florida.  Your road record sucks (would it kill you to schedule more than one road non-conference game?), and you were 4-6 in your last ten games.  Sorry, that's just not gonna cut it.  Next!

ILLINOIS STATE/CREIGHTON - Group therapy, just the way I like it.  Ok guys, here's the deal.  I get that no one wants to play you because you're in the scary non-power conference that is the MVC, and they've got everything to lose and nothing to gain by playing you.  And no one's more irritated than me about the power conference jubilee the big dance is becoming.  But you know, when you get the chance to play those teams (like you did ISU, when you had Indiana and Kent State back-to-back), you've got to win those games.  Beating Drake one of the six times you played them would have been a good thing too.  Maybe you're just going to have to go on the road and take the big boys on.  It worked for UMass, Cincinnati, and Gonzaga, and it can work for you too.  Ok, next victim.

VIRGINIA TECH - I'm going to go easier on you, since your coach Seth Greenberg took it like a man Sunday, and didn't get all whiny with the ESPN guys.  So I'll let you guys in on a little secret: you're not in the ACC.  Well technically you are, but you're not really in the ACC.  You play Duke, UNC, Miami, and Clemson one time.  You're really in a consolation group with Wake, BC, Georgia Tech, and those kind of guys, and the big ACC teams are more of a non-conference yearly series you play.  Which means you're going to have to schedule a little harder, and you can't lose five games to teams outside the top 100.  Yeah, your conference semifinal game against UNC was nice; it almost made me forget about the 39 point drubbing they gave you four weeks ago.  Maybe next year.  Bring in the next one.

DAYTON - This one's pretty simple.  13-1 with Chris Wright, 8-9 without him.  And guess what?  Chris Wright isn't walking through that door!  Roosevelt Chatman isn't walking through that door!  Negele Knight isn't walking through that door!  No soup for you!  Keep 'em rolling...

OHIO STATE - Ok, I'll give you a little credit, you finally upped your non-conference schedule strength - too bad you didn't win any of those games (oh, sorry, forgot Syracuse, that changes everything).  Playing Butler, UNC, and Tennessee only counts for something if you beat one of them.  4-8 on the road isn't going to do you any favors, especially if only one of those four was in the top 100.  Losing to Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota...why were we even considering you?  If you hadn't gotten those late wins over Purdue and Michigan State (your first wins over tournament teams not named Maryland-Baltimore County), this conversation wouldn't even be necessary.  And those wins only brought you up to 4-6 over your last ten games.  I've thoroughly enjoyed this.  I got time for one more.

ARIZONA STATE - Good goodness, how much have you paid Digger and Vitale to plead your case?  I haven't seen that much man love since the second season of Queer as Folk!  Waaah, we beat Arizona twice, and they're in and we're not.  Take responsibility for your own problems!  Your non-conference schedule included Xavier...and Princeton, LSU, Idaho, Delaware State, Florida Gulf Coast...I didn't even know there was a Florida Gulf Coast university, are you sure you didn't create them just to play them?  You played one true road game out of conference, and you got stomped at Nebraska!  You're 5-10 in your last 15, and went 9-9 in the Pac 10.  Bottom line: teams that can't win on the road and play 200+ RPI squads have to finish better than .500 in their conference if they want to dance.  It's just that simple.

After looking at the pairings there seemed to be large amount of teams with double-digit losses during the season.  In fact, there are 26 of 65 NCAA tournament teams who have met defeat at least ten times heading into their first round game in the Big Dance.  With the addition of two more regular season games in 2007-08, a preseason tournament exemption and post season conference tilts there are at least four more opportunities for squads to falter.  It makes the bracket look more mediocre than special.

Here is a look at the overall win-loss numbers of this year’s field.

--26 of 65 teams with 10 or more losses

--4 teams with 31 or more wins

--30 teams with 24-27 wins

--27 teams with 6-9 losses

--24-8 the most common record for tournament teams. 6 teams (UConn, LOU., UMBC, PUR, CS-Fullerton & Wash. St.)

--14 teams with either 21 or 22 wins

--7 schools less than 20 wins

--11 teams with 12 or more losses  

MATCH-UPS
6 USC vs. 11 Kansas St. – March 20, 6:10pm tip-off
Just about everyone knows, by now, about the spectacular freshman match-up that is going to occur in this game between local product O.J. Mayo and the Big-12 Player of the Year Michael Beasley.  The two best freshman in the country get the chance to upstage each other in front of a national audience to try to improve their respective draft statuses for next year (cause let’s face it, these two are hitting the NBA next year).  My eyes will be glued to the TV for this one.

5 Michigan State vs. 12 Temple – March 20, 10:30am tip-off
Lost productivity in the workplace is guaranteed for this battle between the Big Ten’s Spartans and A-10 Champion Temple Owls.  This game should prove interesting as the last time the Owls made the tournament (2001), it was Michigan State who knocked them off in the Elite Eight.  Revenge factor, anyone?  Dionte Christmas (no relation to Lloyd) is one of the A-10’s most exciting players and his flexibility to score in the lane or from outside could give the Spartans fits.  On the other side of the ball, State guard Drew Neitzel is nationally respected for being one of the toughest players in the nation.

TEAMS TO WATCH
2 Texas – South Region
If you watched the Big-12 Tournament championship game, you know of what I speak.  This team is one of the most exciting teams to watch in college basketball.  Their guard play is fantastic with D.J. Augustine running the point, averaging almost 20.0 PPG and A.J. Abrams jacking up three’s like there’s no tomorrow.  Their front court is solid with forward Damion James averaging a double-double and shooting 44.7 percent from downtown.  Forward/center Connor Atchley is contributing over five rebounds per game and shooting 55.3 percent from the field, including 43.7 percent from three-point range.  The Longhorns also managed to snag virtual home games in the regionals (Houston) and if they make the Final Four (San Antonio). Unless a team can play patient, possession basketball against them and limit their scoring opportunities, they are a lock for the Elite Eight.

10 Davidson – Midwest Region
Davidson has a great chance to make a run in this year's tourney and they are the highest seed that could make a good run.  Gonzaga is over-rated and they proved that in their conference tourney.  Georgetown is solid, but they've shown vulnerability over the past couple weeks.  Not only that, but Davidson had UNC and Duke both against the ropes early in the season, losing by 4 and 6, respectively.  Davidson, who owns the nation's longest active winning streak, is a team to be reckoned in this tournament and could end up in the Sweet 16.

NOTES
There’s been a lot of talk the past couple days about the ability of Georgia to beat Xavier in the first round.  That’s just not going to happen.  Yes, the Bulldogs won the SEC tourney, but their road there was a perfect storm (pun intended).  They got a no call against Kentucky, Tennessee and Vandy both got beat before they had to play them, and their entire tournament was practically a home game considering the fans of other teams had trouble getting into the venue.  Xavier is easily one of the best teams in the nation and could be the most balanced.  Xavier will win that game by double-digits.

Also, a lot of people are still trying to ride the Winthrop wave from last year's tournament.  Against teams in the tournament this year, Winthrop went 1-3, beating only Miami, and also losing to Ole Miss, who had its bubble popped yesterday.  They are not as good a team as they were last year.  The same can be said for George Mason.  You should not believe that either of these teams is the second-coming of Gonzaga until they can prove that they can hang with the big boys year after year.  Don’t make the mistake of moving either of these teams past the first round in your brackets.

I'd never heard of the website Bracket Project until just a few days ago - too bad, I would have been addicted to it.  But thanks to The Meaningful Collateral, they've steered me towards a very intriguing blog post.

Joe Lunardi, self-proclaimed originator of the study of brackets (or bracketology, as it's become so customary to say), has been going on and on about how he nailed all 65 teams correctly.  But if you look down in the comments section of the above post, you'll see that an astute viewer has noticed an unusual quirk.  As of 1 a.m. Sunday, Villanova was his third team out of the bracket.  By 3 p.m. Sunday, they were the third-to-last team in.

What could possibly have changed their status this much in a 14 hour span?  Lunardi made an off-hand remark of how 'Nova's 22 point loss to St. Joseph's didn't look as bad in hindsight, with St. Joe's making the finals of the A-10 tournament and all.  Really?  You're telling me that a St. Joe's loss made their win over Villanova look so impressive that the Wildcats deserved to leapfrog six teams?

Incidentally, you would think that Lunardi would be very familiar with the level of talent in the Philadelphia area universities, given that his full-time job is at...wait for it...St. Joseph's.  Hmmm.

What's making this even more curious is that a similar situation occured last year, when Arkansas inexplicably rose several spots in his draw on Sunday morning.  Could king bracketologist have an inside source within the committee feeding him these nuggets?  Obviously no one can say with 100% certainty, but these sure are awful amazing coincidences.

The tiny college of Davison has quickly become this year's trendy "upset special" in the NCAA tourney.  Well I have my seat booked on that bandwagon as well.  I love Davidson to get the Round 1 upset over the king of the mid-majors, Gonzaga.  I also wouldn't be surprised to see them knock out Georgetown in Round 2 (assuming Georgetown takes care of it's business over UMBC).  I don't personally have the Wildcats of Davidson pulling that kind of George Mason-like run, but I wouldn't exactly be stunned if it happened.

(Note:  Vegas says that #10 and #12 seed upset teams advance onto the Sweet 16 round half of the time, after getting their Round 1 upset.  In case you were looking to make a friendly wager, Davidson is a #10 seed.  Not that gambling is legal....or anything.)

Davidson gained the automatic bid to "The Big Dance" by winning the Southern Conference tourney, after toasting it with an undefeated (20-0) record.  The Wildcats finished with an overall record of 26-6.

The university is located in tiny Davidson, North Carolina and only has an enrollment of about 1,700.  Davidson, North Carolina is near Charlotte.  Want to take a guess where they are slotted to play Rounds 1 and 2?  Raleigh.  If you ever want to provide fuel for an upset, having a upstart mid-major play near their campus is like providing them with their own Shell station.

They average 78 pts. per game and shoot 47% from the field.  A large part of that is superstar shooting guard Stephen Curry, son of former NBA star Dell Curry.  Curry averages 25.1 ppg and 4.8 rpg.  Just like his old man, he is absolutely deadly with his jump shot, shooting 48% from the floor and 42% from behind-the-arc.  He's a matchup issue for anybody in the country and can't be held down for a full 40 minutes.  Let us just say that Gonzaga's 181st ranked defense will see way too much of Mr. Curry for their liking.

Davidson also takes care of the ball, which is key in winning tournament games.  They the turn the ball over on average of 12 times per game.  But they offset even their smallest amount of turnovers by getting 8 steals per game. 

However; the one achilles heel for the Wildcats, as it is with most mid-majors, is size.  They don't have a lot of it.  The top two leading rebounders (Meno and Lovedale) only go 6'8" and average only 5 rpg.  Compare that with their prospective Round 2 opponent, who have Roy Hibbert (7'2"), and you see why I don't have them getting out of the second round.

Lastly before you throw out that old argument against mid-majors:  their competition isn't as good.  The Wildcats are one of the exceptions.  They played a tremendous non-conference schedule that included ACC heavyweights UNC, Duke and North Carolina State.  They lost all three of those games by a combined 11pts.  Considering they had to play each of them on their court (God forbid that a major go play a mid-major in their gym) that's not too shabby.  Tells me that they aren't afraid, or intimidated by anyone.  Another good trait to have heading into the tourney.

Bandwagon giddy-up.

So, by now, you're probably spending valuable time at work scouring the experts opinions and reading up on the field of 64 for the NCAA tourney. All of this information can help you win your office pool, or one of the many national contests - or will it? The truth is, picking the tournament is literally a crapshoot. I once won an office pool when I let my (then two year old) daughter make all my picks for me. I had her point or say the team she thought would win. Turns out she did better than dear old dad who studied and listened and thought he knew what he was doing. Mike Decourcy, Joe Lunardi or any of the other "bracketologists" just simply don't know what will happen. It's easy to make your picks according to "chalk." This year, especially, just picking the best seeded team might be the best way to win the prize. I personally never take all the #1 seeds, but this year, those #1s look pretty impressive. Hard to see who might knock them off. But you know someone will. Who's it going to be? This year I'm going to be in three pools (down from year's past). One I'm taking all the top seeds (i.e. picking the favorites to hold chalk). Another, I'm going unorthodox and taking only odd seeded teams to win, and modifying that to take into account that 1 is also an odd number. In the "oddball" bracket I'm going with Clemson, Louisville, Memphis and UCLA in the Final Four. Truly an oddball selection. And my third bracket I'm calling my main sheet. This is the one that I'm putting hunches to work. It will have upsets. It will have at least one #1 seed going down. My Final Four on that sheet looks like this: N. Carolina, G'Town, Texas, UCLA. I like these picks a lot and will feel quite proud if this is how it plays out. I feel the strongest about UCLA. Their road to the Final Four is pretty easy. I like the Texas pick too. Georgetown is battle-tested and well-coached. UNC could be the team everyone is picking, but that means they could be the surprise team that gets upset. I don't see it. They're just too good.

Please don't take my word on anything. One of my favorite web sites simulated the tourney field 10,000 times and breaks down their results. They're probably as good as anyone, but note, they missed the George Mason miracle Final Four run completely with their SIM engine not having George Mason getting to the final four once in 10,000, so it just goes to show, you might be better off having a baby pick, or your dog or doing one potato two potato. Either way, let's get ready for some March Madness.