It's Spring Training and that means that its time for each veteran player to proclaim, "We're really going to surprise some people this year". Its time for each local beat writer to take out a comeback story they wrote nine years ago, change some names and send it to print. Managers are going to, "emphasize the fundamentals this year".
What you really don't hear is the truth. There are ten Major League teams with absolutely no chance to make the playoffs (Kansas City, Oakland, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, San Francisco, Houston, Washington and Florida). There is still a serious drug problem in the game because there is no HGH testing. And many General Managers made throat- cutting blunders this winter. Among them is Cincinnati Reds GM, Wayne Krivsky.
Forget the laughable 2007 Rule 5 draft pick of Sergio Valenzuela, which may be the worst Rule 5 draft pick of all time. That move will not cost the Reds as many victories as hiring Dusty Baker. The Reds could not have picked a worse fit for their team than Baker. There are three main reasons for this.
One, Baker's distaste for young players is legendary. In his ten years of managing the San Francisco Giants, he helped bring along three players from their farm system who have made an impact (and its just a slight impact at that) on the Majors: Rich Aurilia, Russ Ortiz, and Kirk Rueter. He did not develop ANY young players from the Cubs' farm system. (Derrick Lee and Aramis Ramirez did blossum under Baker, but they had already started to emerge as productive players before he stumbled into them.) He consistently plays veteran players over young talent and its going to happen again in Cincinnati. This is a shame because it will stunt the development of Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto and Edison Volquez. Already this Spring, Baker referred to playing his youth with the following hesitation; "Yeah, but what if you say, ‘Go play, kid,’ and he’s not ready to play winning baseball? Is it OK to overlook that? I don’t know.” He is not confident in letting younger, faster, healthier and more talented Reds play before Scott Hatteberg, Matt Belisle, Josh Fogg, Norris Hopper and Ryan Freel.
Secondly, Baker has crushed young arms. When he became manager of the Cubs, he inherited stud pitchers Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. After continuous 130 pitch outings, each is trying to resurrect their careers in 2008. A Baseball Prospectus study over the past winter- right after Baker was hired- analyzed managers and their connection to injuries to pitchers. They did this by analyzing high- risk pitch counts (over 110) and subsequent DL time for any of those pitchers that had high pitch counts. No Major League manager came close to Dusty Baker in terms of number of high risk pitch counts and subsequent time spent on the DL. We can only hope that Baker has learned his lesson and will not ruin Bailey, Cueto and Volquez.
Lastly, Baker ignores stats. How else can someone explain his insistence on frequently batting Cubs shortstop Neifi Perez in the leadoff spot or two- hole in 2005 and 2006 when he compiled on base percentages of .298 and .266 respectively. Perez should not only have been out of the lineup, he should have been out of baseball with those numbers. Not only that, he gave Perez 572 at bats in 2005! Baker got hit over the head 572 times and still did not wake up!
Besides the terrible move to hire Dusty Baker, Reds GM Wayne Krisvky recently bengalled (new Cincinnati verb) the starting rotation by signing veteran starting pitcher, Josh Fogg. This move is poor on multiple fronts:
1. Anyone that averages 4.82 strikeouts per nine innings is going to give up plenty of batted balls. Add to that, that he is a flyball pitcher (he recently has been in the low 40%s in groundball percentage) and this spells trouble in Great American Smallpark.
2. You might wish that if he's going to give up home runs, well then, maybe it will be a lot of solo home runs! No dice. He gave up 10.5 hits every nine innings last year. How bad is this? By comparison, Eric Milton had the following H/9 rate in his three years with the Reds: 10.1, 8.7, 10.4. More baserunner bad news: Fogg walks 3.04 batters per nine innings and his last three WHIPs were a scary 1.47, 1.55, and 1.53. Milton's career BB/9 rate is 2.0 and his three WHIPs in Cincinnati were 1.55, 1.34, and 1.53. No, Fogg is not as bad as Milton, but only because he does not serve up the home run ball at alarming rates like Milton did. Fogg's home run rate is only below average (23 home runs in 165.66 innings in 2007).
3. I hear people say that he is an "innings eater". This makes me cringe every time I hear it. Why do you want him on the mound so much "eating innings" if he pitching so terribly during those innings?
4. I hear people say that he won over 10 games five out of the last six years (barely, he won no more than 12 in a season). The Win is the most misleading pitching statistic in baseball. It is so dependent on so many outside factors- most notably, the pitcher's supporting offense, the pitcher's defense behind him, and the bullpen's ability to hold a lead. Former Reds GM, Jim Bowden, was fooled by Jimmy Haynes' 15 wins in 2002. He ignored Haynes' WHIP (1.48), Haynes' ability to strand baserunners (he was in the top five in the Majors) and Haynes' average strikeout total (126 Ks in 196.6 innings) and signed Haynes to a two- year, $5 million contract after the season. Haynes should never have been signed to any contract after those 15 wins because his statistics told us that the wins were not a result of his efforts. Fogg's statistics are telling us the same thing.
5. Fogg will take innings away from younger, healthier, and more talented pitchers like Volquez, Bailey and Cueto. All three of these young pitchers have high ceilings and great scouting reports. What they do not have is major league pitching experience and they are not going to get that with Josh Fogg on the mound, eating innings, and give up souvenirs to fans in left field.
It all adds up to another .500 season, third place finish, for the Reds. The young talent won't be properly developed, Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn may leave after the year, and the younger players become more expensive next year. The cycle of mediocrity will continue for the Reds and this year, it will be because of two off- season moves.
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