Before I begin, allow me to perform a public service announcement for one:
To my colleague Bret Sims: I know that you hate MLB. So in the interest of fairness, I'm giving you this advance warning. This will be yet another baseball related post. Pleas ignore it and move on to investigating your follow-up post on the Wii Syndrome story: HGH Being Prescribed to Suffers of Wii Syndrome. Thank you and Good Luck.
On to baseball.
Several weeks ago, I wrote a three-part series whereby I did a one-man mock baseball draft (or rankings if you prefer that terminology). In it, I beat the drum for a particular mantra over, and over, and over again: Grab Speed Early. Since I've been participating in the GSI Mock Draft (posted directly under this one), I have recently taken some heat for that mantra. I feel that further explanation is necessary.
I was never, and never will advocate taking all speed guys early. Can you find stolen base guys late in your draft? Sure. But will they be coming with a ton of category baggage? You bet.
(When I refer to category baggage, I am referring to a player that does one, or possibly two, things extremely well--i.e. stolen bases and average. But does something else so completely horribly--i.e. home runs and runs batted in--that you have to use pick(s) to compensate for it. If you don't compensate, you devalue the one or two things that player does well because your overall team value takes a hit.)
I have never, for instance, advocated taking a player like Juan Pierre in the second or third round just because he'll steal you 50+ bases, and that's hard to come by. I would not only be kicked out of writing for GSI if I did that, but I would have my fantasy players card revoked (if there was one) and possibly be locked up by the men with the white coats (maybe I'll get a room next to Brittany!).
No. What I've advocated is taking the speed guys who don't bring along category baggage early, over say a pure power hitter. You want the elite speed that will also not hurt you in other categories, so that you don't have to worry about using picks to compensate. Players like Reyes, Ramirez, Crawford, Byrnes, etc. should be taken over players like Pujols, Manny and Big Papi, because they are going to steal you a goodly amount of bags (in Reyes' case an ungodly amount), yet they won't hurt you too badly in other categories like HR, RBI, R.
You might be asking yourself, "Self, why would I do that?" Answer: Sheer numbers.
Last season there were only 19 players total that stole 30+ bases in the bigs. 19. That's it. That's all. Drive home safely. And of those 19, just a little over half of them come without category baggage. So if you don't grab one or two these players early, you're going to be spending the rest of your draft trying to do preparatory compensation so that you can then select a couple of speed guys with baggage (i.e. Pierre, Taveras, Owens, etc.) and not bring down the overall production of your team.
Allow me to use our own GSI Mock Draft to illustrate.
We are currently in the 11th round. If you were an owner that didn't subscribe to my mantra (shame on you!) and decided to go for power or pitching early, then fill your stolen base needs later, here is what you are looking at. Through 10 rounds there are approximately six players who stole 30+ bags last season still left on the board. Let's break these players down, shall we?
Corey Patterson: Currently unemployed. Problem.
Julio "I'm obligated to grab my junk 400 times every AB because the chicks love it" Lugo: Will hurt in power (only 8 HR last season) and also hit a putrid, with a capital "P", .237. No thanks.
Willy Taveras: Got the speed and average. But you better be able to compensate for the lack of power (2 HR/24 RBI in '07. Good god, that's worse than junk grabber). Plus, he had hamstring issues last year, so you'll have a bit of injury histroy heading into this season. Pass.
Kaz Matsui: Interesting cat. He's changed teams, yet will still remain hitting in the 2-hole, has good offense around him, and should have a chance to do some running. He could match his production from last year. That said, he'll still be a serious drain on your power numbers (4 HR/37 RBI in 2007). However, if the Astros lineup is as potent as some believe it could be, Kaz might make up for that in Runs. Might be worth a flier.
Jerry Owens: Again, the power grid is off. Only 1 HR last season? Seriously, Jerry? I think I could hit 1 bomb accidentally, and I haven't played since I graduated high school in 1993. Good god. Plus, no one has a clue right now about Owens' playing time. And you can't figure it out until you see him on the field because you can't understand a damn word Ozzie Guillen is saying (unless you speak Spanglish).
And last...
Dave Roberts: Old. Serious injury history. Plays on a terrible team. Aaron Rowand now mans CF. 'Nuff said.
So if you waited on speed, while you're looking over the above options (heaven help you), I'm sitting pretty with my speed already in tow. I have approximately 70-80 stolen bases, projected, with Ichiro, Kinsler and Martin, and I didn't seriously damage any other category doing it. And I still have time to take a flier on a guy like Michael Bourn or Fukudome to round out my stolen bases category.
As an added bonus, I still have a ton of 25-30 HR potential guys left on the board to choose from when filling out the power needs of my roster.
Wouldn't you rather have a bunch of decent options to fill your roster needs late in the game, instead of a few--and those few are going to cause more trouble than they are worth? I sure would.
But then again, maybe you covet Jerry Owens.
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