GSI Mock Draft: Round 5

by Jim Humbert 2/12/2008 8:09:00 PM

The draft is cruising right along and the fifth round is all wrapped up. Picks were varied in the round with seven hitters and five pitchers. The list of pitchers includes the first reliever taken in the draft. Take a look and let us know what you think.

 ROUND 1 | ROUND 2 | ROUND 3 | ROUND 4

49) CLASGENS - Nick Markakis, OF, BAL

50) SIMONS - Brian Roberts, 2B, BAL

51) MURDICO - Garret Atkins, 3B, COL

52) HUMBERT #1 - Justin Verlander, SP, DET

53) FISCHER - Ian Kinsler, 2B, TEX

54) MUEHLENKAMP - Cole Hamels, SP, PHI

55) DINSMORE - Scott Kazmir, SP, TB

56) BARTEL - Eric Byrnes, OF, ARI

57) BOLTON - Carlos Guillen, SS, DET

58) WETZEL - John Smoltz, SP, ATL

59) POLKING - Travis Hafner, 1B, CLE

60) HUMBERT #2 - Jonathan Papelbon, RP, BOS

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Clemens, McNamee drama unfolds

by Jeff Shapes 2/12/2008 3:30:00 PM

Tomorrow Roger Clemens and Brian McNamee, former friends and professional colleagues, Clemens as star athlete, McNamee as his personal trainer, will testify before a congressional committee. The subject: Did McNamee inject Clemens with steroids and human growth hormone at a time when the legendary pitcher was seemingly headed into the twilight of his career? 

For devout baseball fans, and even for people who don’t know a slider from an intentional walk, the Clemens-McNamee confrontation promises to be high drama with very serious consequences at stake, including the possibility that either could be prosecuted for perjury for lying under oath. But if Clemens and McNamee continue on the path they’ve traveled that got them in front of congress in the first place, logic dictates that the truth will be a casualty at some point in the proceedings since McNamee told federal investigators and baseball’s Mitchell Commission that he administered performing-enhancing drugs to Clemens, while the former Red Sox, Blue Jays, Yankees and Astros ace vehemently denies that took place.  

Also on the line is Clemens’ reputation, which already has taken a beating in the court of public opinion, and, conversely, the veracity of the Mitchell Report, which relied greatly on the testimony of McNamee and former Mets clubhouse attendant Kirk Radomski, who provided performance-enhancing substances to a host of players. 

Without offering an opinion on who is telling the truth, let’s examine what has happened so far and what could take place at the hearing. 

With the exception of those privy to the extensive fitness regimen employed by Clemens over the last decade, Brian McNamee was a largely unknown figure until the Mitchell Report came to light last December 13. Suddenly he became a major player in baseball’s steroid saga, implicating Clemens, Andy Pettitte and Chuck Knoblauch. But the biggest fish caught in the Mitchell net was undoubtedly Clemens, who was mentioned 82 times in his report, and who through an illustrious career that was headed directly to Cooperstown, won 354 games (eighth all-time) with a 3.12 ERA and 4,672 strikeouts (second all-time). Indeed, after it was made public, the Mitchell Report might as well have been renamed the Clemens Report as the overwhelming media coverage and public discourse focused on the Texan.  

Following the Mitchell Report’s release things have moved quickly vis a vis Clemens and his accuser. On December 14, Clemens issued his first denial. On December 15, Pettitte admitted that he had twice been given H.G.H. by McNamee. On January 3, Clemens’ said he was injected with B12 and lidocaine when an advanced tape from his upcoming appearance on the January 6 edition of the CBS program, “60 Minutes,” aired. The next day, Clemens followed up the “60 Minutes” segment with a Houston press conference where he again vigorously defended his position and at times angrily responded to reporter’s questions. Adding a sense of melodrama to the gathering was a secretly taped phone conversation between Clemens and McNamee that was played. The tape offered an insight into their relationship, but yielded no real clues as to whether Clemens or McNamee was telling the truth.  

Things got even more macabre on January 10 when McNamee turned over syringes, gauze and empty viles that purportedly had contained steroids that he had given to Clemens, and had saved for some seven years, to the staff of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. On February 4, Pettitte was deposed by the committee’s staff, Clemens was center stage the next day and McNamee appeared on February 7, revealing that he had even injected Clemens’ wife with steroids in 2002 prior to her being featured in a Sports Illustrated swim suit story.       

That brings us to tomorrow, and the specter of Clemens and McNamee sitting at the same table perhaps a few feet apart, likely separated by Charlie Scheeler, a Baltimore attorney who led the Mitchell Commission’s staff work. It is under these intense circumstances that Clemens and McNamee will their stories to the House Committee and answer probing questions, some influenced by Pettitte’s deposition, which, according to published reports, have supported McNamee’s claims and contradicted what Clemens had said. 

All this, of course, will play out in a packed hearing room with a worldwide audience numbering in the millions following every word via TV, radio and the Internet.  

So the big questions are, what kind of fireworks will the proceedings produce, and will either side reveal a smoking gun that once and for all settles the issue? I can’t wait to find out what happens, and on that score I know I’m not alone.

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MLB

Player Profile: Russell Martin, Fantasy's Best Catcher

by Jeremy Fischer 2/12/2008 2:57:00 PM

In just about every mock draft I have been monitoring, including the one here at GSI that I'm participating in, Victor Martinez has been drafted ahead of Russell Martin.  Well, it's time we put an end to that insanity.

Now I'm not one to use quotation's from other fantasy writers, as I prefer to make up my own original ones. (Like the soon to be infamous, "Asians live vibrantly forever".  Inside joke for those of us here at GSI)  But when looking at ESPN's 2008 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit, I realized that lead writer Matthew Berry did the best job at describing this travesty.  I tried to improve upon it, but alas, could not.

Berry writes, "Martinez had six more home runs and batted eight points higher in 2007, while Martin had nine more runs. That's basically a wash to me. So it boils down to V-Mart's 27 more RBIs to Martin's 21 more stolen bases, and I value steals more than RBIs. Plus, there's no reason to think Martin won't improve. After all, new manager Joe Torre has had quite a bit of success with catchers, no?"

Bingo, baby.

Once again, too much emphasis is being placed on power numbers in fantasy.  Don't get me wrong, I love the big hitters as much as the next guy.  And I understand that chicks dig the longball.  But the fact of the matter is when it comes to fantasy, there are a plethora of guys who will give you very good production in the power department.  The positions of 1B, 3B, OF, and to some extent SS, are loaded with power guys.

Therefore it reasons that when looking at the catcher position, it would be far easier to replace the type of production that Martinez will give you, than the type of production that Martin will give you.  Are Matthew Berry and I the only fantasy players that are realizing this?

Plus when you take a look at the numbers, it is not like you are having to choose between power and speed.  Martin hit only 6 less bombs than Martinez and scored more runs.  You are just about getting the best of both world's here, at a position where there is a distinct drop-off after these two.

But the question is can Martin duplicate his production from last year?  Catcher is position notorious for killing players' knees and legs.  Seeing as steals is a key component to Martin's game, it is a valid question. 

I say Yes.

Martin is only 24 yrs. old and is entering only his third full Major League season.  At that age, he should have at least 4-5 more good years left in his legs easy before you have to start worrying about the inevitable "catcher's knees".  (Note:  Eventhough Martinez's game relies more on power, he is 29, which makes him a prime candidate to watch for tired legs due to catching.  Seeing as most power comes from a player's leg drive and hip turn, that might be something to pay attention to.  Just saying.)

In his two full seasons in the bigs, Martin has produced OBP's of .355 (2006) and .374 (2007).  Both are well above league average.  I expect him to do the same, which means he'll be on base enough to have the opportunity to steal bags and score runs.

The one X-factor in all this--and it's a big one--is new manager Joe Torre.  Torre may not be the best manager in the world with a pitching staff, but he certainly knows how to manage a loaded offensive lineup in a way that uses everyone's talents (see Yankee's teams he managed over the last decade).  I'm not too concerned right now that Martin will land in a slot in the lineup that will adversely affect his power.  In a quick scan of last year's box scores, Martin usually held down the 5 or 6-hole.  Those are not traditional speed slots, but Martin still swiped his 20 bags.

I don't see the addition of Andruw Jones, crappy Rafael Furcal and even crappier Juan Pierre affecting Martin's batting position adversely.  In fact, if Pierre and Furcal are as bad as this year as they were last year, Torre might even move Martin up in the order to take advantage of his speed and higher OBP.  Remember, Jones and Kent need someone to drive in ahead of them.

Lastly, I think Martin equals or betters his production in 2008 because he plays all of his home games in Dodger Stadium.  That ballyard is cavernous and doesn't allow many 'adios' balls at all.  But the gaps in the outfield are extremely inviting.  So if the Dodgers want to score runs, they are going to have to take advantage of their guys with speed to get into scoring position, then let the big dogs extra basehit them home.  This is not a yard that plays into the "wait for the 3-run homer" philosophy.  (Hence the reason I said Torre is a BIG X-factor.  Can he manage that way after so many years in the AL where it was wait on the home run ball philosophy.)

It appears that some of my fantasy brethren have started to become aware of this injustice even before this posting.  As of this writing, Martinez's ADP (Average Draft Position) was only one spot higher than Martin's (28 to 29).  We can do better.  We can push Martin by Martinez.  We can right this wrong.

But if you happen to play with some fellas less educated than you on this matter and Martinez is drafted first, then you just smile.  Smile in the confidence that you know you can still get Martin (the true best catcher in fantasy) at a pick somewhere in the 40's (I got him in the GSI draft at #44), making him one of the best bargains in the draft.

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Fantasy Baseball

Sports Illustrated swimsuit issue arrives

by Dan Clasgens 2/12/2008 1:19:00 PM

In its 42 years on the newsstands the Sports Illustrated swimsuit issue has been part of American culture.  Few annual publications have lasted as long and even fewer have sparked more debate.  Even today, some people still get their pannies in a wad over the scantily clothed women. However, with so many magazines on the store shelves regularly that have just as much if not more skin the controversy has died down a bit.

Growing up in a time before the Internet, I can appreciate what the SI Swimsuit issue meant to teenage boys everywhere in the magazines hey day. As a marketer I can appreciate what the swimsuit issue did for the magazine. There been so many beautiful women to grace the pages over the years, my favorites are still in this order:

1. Elle McPherson
2. Kathy Ireland
3. Tyra Banks
4. Petra Nemcova
5. Veronica Varekova
6. Heidi Klum
7. Christie Brinkley
8. Paulina Porizkova
9. Carolyn Murphy
10. Cheryl Tiegs

That leads to my favorite from this year's issue: TORI PRAVER

CHECK OUT THESE LINKS
--Complete 2008 Models/Photos
--History of Covers

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Just For Fun

Fantasy: 2B Surprisingly Deep

by Jimmy Dinsmore 2/12/2008 7:49:00 AM

Our GSI Mock Draft is going on right now and I'm glad I'm participating in this. I've learned some trends and made a mistake that when my real draft(s) get here, I don't plan on repeating. In Round Two, I chose Brandon Phillips. While taking him 18th overall isn't outrageous (his ADP is 19 by several different rankings), I took him for the categories he provides. I'm pleased with that. Phillips was, afterall, a 30/30 guy and in a 5x5 roto league, that's valuable. But, I was also patting myself on the back initially for getting the second best 2B as I thought it was a weak position (as it has been in years past). Then I started looking further at 2B and I'd say it's one of the deepest positions in baseball. You can get bargains and steals as well as up-and-coming talent at that position and wait until much later to snag them.

Had I replaced Phillips with someone like Josh Beckett or Brandon Webb or even Erik Bedard, I would have a legit #1 starter. As it stands now, while there's still gobs of good pitchers available, I don't have an ace.

Here's a list of good second basemen who you can get later in your draft and some of their "projected" stats. When you see how they stack up to Utley and Phillips, you'll see there's a definite tier, but that the drop off is not that severe.

--Ian Kinsler 20+ HRs 70+ RBIs, 20+ SBs.
--Aaron Hill 20+ HRs 70+ RBIs and is also SS eligible
--Kelly Johnson 20+ HRs 70+ RBIs 10 SBs
--Jayson Nix 15+ HRs 50+ RBIs 10+ SBs (super sleeper)

Then there's still some other 2B out there who you wouldn't be ashamed to have as your starter like Placido Polanco (who hit .340 last year by the way), Dan Uggla and his power potential (although expect a drop off without Cabrera in the lineup), Brian Roberts (who had a career high 50 SBs last year but is rumored to be on the trading block), Rickie Weeks (who still has tons of potential) and the AL Rookie of the Year Dustin Pedroia, not to mention other notables like Jeff Kent (still a decent hitter), Orlando Hudson (consistent) and Kaz Matsui (a possible nab for SBs).

So there are 12  mentioned here, plus the two elite 2Bs (already drafted early in our mock draft) in Phillips and Utley and you have 14 pretty good candidates to start at 2B on your fantasy squad. Even in a deep 12 team league, there's good second basemen to be had, so don't waste the pick early simply because you think you have to grab a good second baseman. In fact, I'd say I'm firmly in the camp of never drafting for position need and drafting to fill weaknesses in your categories.

GSI Mock Draft: Round 4

by Jim Humbert 2/12/2008 7:45:00 AM

The next twelve picks of the mock draft are in and round four is complete. It looks as if most owners started to fill in their lineup with some position players. But there were still a few surprises. What do you think?

ROUND 1 | ROUND 2 | ROUND 3  

37) HUMBERT #2 - Alex Rios, OF, TOR

38) POLKING - Robinson Cano, 2B, NYY

39) WETZEL - Troy Tulowitzki - SS, COL

40) BOLTON - Justin Morneau, 1B, MIN

41) BARTEL - Felix Hernandez, SP, SEA

42) DINSMORE - Adam Dunn, OF, CIN

43) MUEHLENKAMP - Aramis Ramirez, 3B, CHI

44) FISCHER - Russel Martin, C, LAD

45) HUMBERT #1 - Derek Jeter, SS, NYY

46) MURDICO - Derrek Lee, 1B, CHI

47) SIMONS - John Lackey, SP, LAA

48) CLASGENS - Joe Mauer, C, MIN

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