Alright, confession time. The above banner is misleading. The word “strategy” implies that I walked into my fantasy football draft day with a preconceived notion about how to handle my selected players’ bye weeks. I didn’t.
I honestly wish that I could say I was that Belichek-ian. I’m not. I actually had never given the bye weeks a second thought. And therein lies the rub.
Here’s how it went down:
I walked into the draft day with all the usual trappings of a hopelessly addicted fantasy gamer. I had my list of rankings, my list of sleepers, a list of players I thought were probably going to be undervalued by my competition, and my draft position.
In addition, I personally had completed several mock drafts. This allowed me to have a vague idea about how I thought the draft would unfold, and come up with some personal guidelines:
I wanted a stud RB in Round 1, either another stud RB or stud WR in Round 2 (whichever was best available), spend Round 3 building RB stock and then spend Round 4 continuing the RB theme, or get a second stud WR (again, whichever was best available).
Notice anything special in all the above? That’s right, not a mention of considering bye weeks. None. Nada. Zero.
So I had the 5th pick in a 12-team league with snake drafting setup. Round 1 I get J. Addai (stud RB). Round 2 I grab M. Harrison (stud WR because I thought I could get what was left in the RB pool at later rounds, and Marvin hadn’t been hurt yet). Round 3 I take M. Lynch (RB depth) and Round 4 I snatch L. Coles (I had RB A. Green has a sleeper I knew I could get later, so I went with WR depth. In interest of full-disclosure, I could not have been more wrong on Green. Ugh.)
It’s at this point that I’m beginning to look the QB position and see what I can get, and where I think I can get it at, when my buddy Ben elbows me and asks me if I’m purposely trying to pick players that all have the same bye week. I look at my selected players and realize that 3 of my first 4 picks all have byes on week six of the season.
Uh-oh.
This is also the moment that this peculiar drafting oddity is made public by Ben and me laughing at my ignorance. (Personal note: this never would have happened in my baseball draft, as baseball is my favorite passion, so I pour over everything with a zeal that I lack during football season.) One of the other owners then begins a discussion about how some so-called fantasy “experts” are actually touting this as a drafting theory. You select has many players as you can with the same bye week. That way you get all your bye week weakness out of the way in one week. You go into the season knowing that you can scratch that bye week up as a loss, and then you are full-strength the rest of the way.
Sounds like an interesting theory with some logic to it, albeit not one that I readily agreed with at the time. But since my own ignorance had already caused me to fall off the boat into this ocean, I might as well try to swim for shore.
So that is what I did. I continued to draft with only my rankings and best available talent as concerns. I even ended up adding a couple more players with the bye week on week six.
With the League Championship now squarely in my back pocket, what did I learn from my unique experience?
I learned that drafting without regard to bye weeks is as sound a strategy as any other fantasy football strategy. Why? Because ultimately the season will be determined as much by your in-season management, as your bounty on draft day.
You still have to get top-notch talent in the early rounds. You still have to have running back depth (they are still fantasy football gold). You still have to be smart with your trades. You still have to watch the waiver wire closely. You still have to play matchups. And finally, you still have to have a little luck. These are all constants, no matter what strategy, theory, or ignorance you choose to use on draft day. Truth be told, it was a couple of critical in-season moves that I made that actually proved to be the difference.
I played the waiver wire well with pickups of QB David Garrard when I saw that Kitna was not going to live up to expectations. I also picked up RB J. Fargas when I realized I had blown it with A. Green, and RB A. Stecker late in the season when M. Lynch was out for a few weeks with injury. It was Stecker and his favorable late-season matchups that were a real boon. I also made one critical trade. I traded M. Harrison early in the season for A. Gates. This was back when the Colts were still reporting that he only had a sprained knee and should only miss a couple games, not the whole freaking season.
Those in-season moves are ones that I would have made no matter what my drafting strategy would have been.
In the end, I’m going to employ the same strategy next season. I’m going into the 2008 draft with only two things in mind: 1) Get my studs early and 2) Go for talent over all else.
Bye weeks be damned!